Mitt Romney can be President of the United States. I believe that. It's not that I don't like Barack Obama. He's a decent man, and I'm planning on voting for him next November. But there are a whole slew of problems that he has, both personal and geopolitical, that make it more likely to me that Romney will not only get the GOP nomination, but that he will prevail in the presidential election.
First, as to Barack. He's a decent, intelligent man. No doubt about it. Part of the problem with the Obama administration is that the man is fundamentally a technocrat. He's demonstrated that with his overall style and direction. This is how he got the health care bill passed through Congress, which is no small accomplishment, but it does not translate well into other areas of national policy. I think the word 'technocrat' describes him to a tee. He sits on top of the genormous system of the United States government and basically, whatever percolates to the surface is what he rubber stamps. 99% of the time, that's the hallmark of a smooth, well run administration.
The problem is -- we're going through quite momentous times, and the OWS movement (along with the Tea Party) should be obvious signs that not all is sunny and bright on Main Street. It's very hard for Obama to change his stripes. He would make an excellent university president, but POTUS? I don't know whether the American public will buy him in November, 2012.
Before we get to Mitt Romney, we should look at what my econometric projections are saying about the economy in 2012 and 2013. Unfortunately for the near term, things are going to get substantially worse in 2012. The EU is one sorry, long running fiasco, and most smart people think that the final outcome is a variation of the destruction of the euro and/or the EU. Pile on top of this the Chinese housing bubble and guaranteed inaction from Washington, DC in the face of declining economic numbers, and we're almost guaranteeing a 43 car pileup on the freeway (economically speaking).
Conversely, almost as soon as the election is over, we'll be primed for a gigantic recovery. Stock valuations by the end of 2012 will be at all-time lows fundamentally, and it will be possible to make enormous long and short term profits. From my perspective, that's almost baked into the cake -- regardless of who wins the White House. And this guarantees that pundits will credit the amazing electoral victory of Candidate X (Romney?) with the turnaround in the world market.
Here's where I actually say nice things about Mitt Romney! Romney exhibits many of the same qualities as FDR in 1932. In 1932, the whole world wrote off FDR as a lightweight. The man actually promised to balance the budget in 1932!!!! But FDR demonstrated many of the same qualities as Romney has during the course of his political career. Whatever you say about FDR, the man was one gigantic flip-flopper. And this quality served him very well in attempting to experiment his way out of the Great Depression. In many respects, Romney (under the right circumstances) could be a traitor to his class and perform the same kind of hat tricks that FDR did during his first term.
And here's where the rub comes in. Given the current culture of Washington, DC -- I don't see Mitt Romney as being a traitor to his class. The multi-billion lobbyist culture of DC is so firmly entrenched that I expect Mitt to be a "get along, go along" kind of guy as far as more tax credits for the 1% etc,etc,etc.
In the short run of exploding profits on Wall Street in 2013, this might be a good way of doing things. But in the long run, it will be more than disastrous for the republic called the United States of America. The GOP can own full credit for all of the wonderfulness that will inevitably follow in 2014, 2015, and beyond.
Expect more intensification of class warfare, more police and government repression, greater and deeper world economic crises down the road, more dangerous patterns of global warming and fights for world raw materials, and more chaos in general. The American Empire going downhill on the bobsled will have jet propulsion then.
Unless Romney is truly a traitor to his class.
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Comments
I suspect you are correct that things are going to get worse in 2012…in fact, MUCH worse. Europe most likely will crash…and bring the rest of the world with it.
Obama will get more than his fair share of blame.
He is a decent man…and in my opinion he is a lot more competent than most people give him credit for being. I doubt anyone would have gotten more out of the political climate in which he has been working. The economic woes have been decades in the making…and are the natural result of our mighty technological evolution.
I suspect our economic straits are direr than you think…and I think any “recovery” will occur only if everyone (most especially Americans) is willing to accept HUGE change in economic policy. A socialistic/capitalistic amalgam will have to emerge…and I truly do not see that happening in our country until after a protracted, immensely bloody revolution. Perhaps Europe will erupt in bloody revolt and save us some of the trouble…but blood will flow before things get better.
Romney, in my opinion, is almost certain to be our next president. In another thread, I mentioned that if elected, I hope he will do what he did when elected governor of Massachusetts…abandon the conservative bullshit and govern as a moderate progressive.
Great post...hope it gets lots of attention.
Encourage Biden or Hillary to run independent of whatever policies he tries to carry out with the time he has.
Embrace his loserdom, and be honest in publicly stating that he's proposing very unpopular policy inititiatives.
Fire Geithner. Hire Joe Stiglitz as Secretary of the Treasury.
Fully adopt policies through administrative action that benefit the 99% to the detriment of the 1%. We're talking about beefing up IRS enforcement and collections on the superrich, along with strong actions supporting the SEC, FTC, CFTC, etc.
Do a 180 on Israel. Not one dime of military aid until Israel halts its West Bank expansion policies and enters into aggressive talks for peace with the Palestinians.
Accelerate our total withdrawal from Afghanistan to the end of 2012.
Call for a Tobin tax on speculation, a much larger maximum tax rate on the superrich. Call for the adoption of as many of the 99% ideas as you possibly can.
Do away with military tribunals altogether.
Dramatically cut back defense and intelligence spending through whatever administrative mechanisms possible.
Call for dramatically increased spending for infrastructure, education, and green initiatives.
I'm sure that you can think of a couple of other earthshaking changes in direction for the Obama policies. The problem comes from being POTUS, however. There are thousands of very bright, very capable people who surround the president who will tell him that the situation a) isn't going to be all that bad economically, and b) if he just continues with the most minor changes, he'll be able to weather out the storm and get re-elected.
My position is -- that I think that Obama is pretty much in a box politically, so why not throw a whole bunch of Hail Mary passes with what little time he has left?
Dramatically increase
Exactly, but I don't think his warmed-over-Bush advisors will let him do anything effective. Ironically, it's his only chance of getting re-elected.
It used to be common wisdom that electing a wealthy president would negate special interests from running things, since he had plenty of money and wouldn't need the extra cash. These days with MORE MORE MORE being the mantra in the 1%, that no longer applies. Romney is the least of the evils, yes, but will he get the nomination, with the crackpots being in control of the GOP?
In your comment on Obama going out with a bang, I'd agree if I thought the outcome of the 2012 election was a lost cause. But it should be quite tight which argues against some of your riskier suggestions.
For instance, the Tobin tax is easily attacked and you know how well-funded those attacks will be. It's been discussed, finally, at fora like the G20 so I'd favor letting a proposal emerge from that body.
And three cheers for Stiglitz. He's the smartest analyst on the present troubles.
By the way, do you think there's any chance of a Tea-Partian (Tom C's term) candidate if Romney gets the nomination?
Without getting into the why of it, I regard Obama as political roadkill at this point, to the extent that I'm actually prepared to feel a little bit sorry for him. I'm a Herman Cain supporter, and view Romney as, at best, better than another four years of Obama- i hope that if Romney is elected, the class he will become a traitor to is the, as you point out, "Corporate Owned Politician" class (or as Rush puts it, The Ruling Elite)
We differ on a lot of things, but I think we agree that it is time to put away political grudges and address a real oncoming problem. Personally, I look to the States for our survival- locally we are already trading food for work, and forming alliances.
We are in the slide that comes after ignoring the "Bridge Freezes before Road" sign, and the only thing to be determined is whether we hit the water, a tree, a snowbank, or simply lose momentum and stop, no worse for wear than needing clean underwear.
At a certain point in a skid, you lose traction and the ability to steer, which means it doesn't much matter who is behind the wheel. I don't know about the cities, but from where I live in flyover country, the feds are regarded as at best idiots and at worst criminals.
So let's try again. Unfortunately I don't think Romney would be a traitor to his class. I don't see him going against the flow.
Secondly, I don't see Romney getting the nomination! At least not in places like Florida, where a Mormon does not stand a chance in hell, of getting voted in. There are too many bible bangers down here! Also these fools, seem to support Cain, no matter how much is dug up about him. They all think he is being smeared by the "liberal media" they all love him.
And healthcare will - in years to come - be seen as Medicare is seen now, a game changer.
I will vote for Obama happily.
Romney is just another rich guy born with the silver spoon - his "business experience" at Bain Capital was buying companies and dismantling them, having assessed that the parts were worth more than the whole. Not exactly job creating.
And if the crazies nominate Perry or Cain that's fine with me.
I'll vote the lesser of two evils. / R
low stock prices do not make a good investment, not if the whole society is going over a cliff. it's quite possible the current problems will temporarily resolve themselves, but since the fundamental problem of worker obsolescence is not even being addressed, even the 'recovery,' if there is one, will be at a lower level of national wealth.
I'm glad you pointed that out right up front, then I could enjoy the rest of your post. When things get this bad dialogue needs to intensify. But practicality must prevail on voting day. And when one side threatens to blow up the world, we must stand together against them on the other side...no matter how flawed it may be.
Interesting points and always makes me think.
Romney has tied himself into a pretzel to be electable. I can't imagine he would govern in his first term without a vague eye on the country and a gimlet eye on the polls. Sure, in his second term, he might turn out to be pretty decent. But then again, so might Obama and we wouldn't have to wait through 4 years of poll-driven politics.
At least in states where it is easy to change party affiliation, I recommend that Democrats vote in the Republican primary, to make sure they don't elect some clown who wins the next round because the economy is still in the dumps.
The question is just who is supposed to deliver that FDR-style change. Neither Obama nor Romney look like obvious candidates. And it matters little if the 0.1% are making out like bandits if the rest of the American people are looking at endless stagnation.
We'll see.
And, I have to disagree about 2012 and beyond. If a Right Wingnut wins, the Market goes in the tank. While those folks are evil, they do understand the numbers. The numbers tell us that the Market always does better with Democrats.
More Supply Side, Austerity is Growth, and such fubar won't work, and the Market will find this out very quickly. It didn't work (still hasn't) in Japan, and it ain't working in Britain (as you've pointed out). Remember, without growth in consumers, capitalists will have no new customers. They've been getting away with profit by firing folks for a couple of years. They won't get away with it for six more. They need more customers with moola. The Right Wingnuts won't allow that. The Market knows this. The Market wants no part of the Tea Baggers and their cat's paws.
A collapse of the Chinese housing market is a Good Thing. Restraint of the Chinese economy is good for the Rest of the World. Foxconn et al have to have consumers. As income/wealth concentrate further, the growth in consumers declines. Put it this way: as more income devolves to the top 1,000,000 Americans, there are fewer opportunities to sell iStuff and Fords and Maytags and whatevers. The sales of Gulfstreams might go up by a couple or so, but that won't sustain economic growth. Without growth, capitalism (American style) collapses.
There is no Good News for 2013 if Romney is elected. The Last Depression just gets here quicker. It's already on the record that half the unemployed are off Unemployment. By this time next year, that proportion will be much worse. Obambi has to make the case that the Right Wingnuts are blocking efforts to fix the problem.
He might cave, as did Carter. We'll see. But it is different this time. We're past in the inflection point in all the curves that matter. This week marked the 7 billionth human. The 6 billionth was 12 years ago, and the 8th (if we get there) is about 10 years away. They ain't enough stuff in the planet to provide a 90210 lifestyle to more than a miniscule fraction. And the absolute value of that fraction gets smaller each day. IOW, the middle class hasn't really shrunk (in numbers), just in proportion. Not surprising, since the number of Americans has doubled since 1950 (remember those halcyon times)?
A substantial portion of the young voters who put Obama in office have lost faith in him and will be sitting out this election, but that loss may be at least partially offset by Evangelicals who stay home rather than vote for a Mormon (ironic that Obama the "Muslim" wins on religion).
Neither candidate has the kind of spine most Americans like to see in a leader, so that's a toss-up. Obama wins by a wide margin on foreign policy, since Romney has no foreign policy experience. Obama scores big on taking down bin Laden and other terrorists and ending the war in Iraq -- at least on paper.
Obama wins as a speaker and a thinker on his feet; on that score, Romney's not a helluva lot better than Bush the Lesser. On the other hand, a lot of voters don't think much of glib talkers, and Obama strikes a lot of them as all talk and not much action.
The only place Romney has a significant advantage is on the economy, tho his supposed business expertise is something of a false flag. Or at least, it's not the kind of experience that will provide jobs for ordinary workers -- quite the opposite. That won't matter to the ignorant Teapartian types, whose critical thinking skills don't extend much beyond three-word slogans. Romney's "chainsaw capitalism" as I like to call it, will be viewed as manna from heaven by banksters -- at least temporarily.
I say temporarily because sooner or later somebody has to take a multi-trillion dollar bath on derivatives. Goldman Sux, et al, shorted and bought their way out of a much of their exposure, which means the price will be paid by nations like Greece, Ireland and Spain, and by union pension funds. In short, citizens will pay with more long-term national debt, cuts in govt services, higher prices for food and energy, and under/unemployment.
I see no way of avoiding a long-term worldwide depression short of a technological miracle. By that I mean some form of cheap energy -- say cold fusion. In short, I'm not optimistic that either Obama or Romney will be able to do much to pull our collective asses out of the fire.
Of course, if dire predictions about global warming come to pass -- and that is quite likely -- none of this will matter. As Keynes rightly quipped, in the long run we're all dead.
Abrawang, Kenny, and Robert -- you are more correct than I am in that you appreciate the multiple possibilities of an uncertain future. One of my weaknesses is to stick with the scenario that appears to have the highest percentage of coming true in my prejudices, regardless of whether those prejudices are based in reality or not.
Maluskina, all presidents pay slavish attention to polls. Don't be fooled. Even W paid attention to them, except he let Karl Rove do the heavy lifting.
al, no POTUS has godlike powers. And these days, it seems they have less and less. However, the reason why we vote for Candidate A over Candidate B is that inch (or micron) of difference.
Norwonk, precisely!
Terry McK, the difference between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats always form a firing squad with the guns facing inward. Republicans form a circular firing squad facing outward, even when there's nothing but shit in the inner circle.
Robert Y, you are a much better economist than I am, so I will defer to your judgement. You make an excellent point. In economics, the world market literally makes its own futures based on nothing more than perceptions and opinions. Thus economic projections are either safe consensus forecasts or snakes eating their own tails. And China? Hell! The whole $500T derivative economy should implode in my opinion. Derivatives and other electronic funny money got us into this mess. The whole system is rotten, which is why people are camping out in Zucotti Park.
Tom, as usual, you're right about everything. The problem with alternative universes like President Cain or Perry is that these guys have too much personal baggage on the one hand, and too much fluff upstairs. The percentages say that Romney will be most likely to win. And I hear that Republicans like to win.
As to the collapse of the derivatives market worldwide -- we've seen this story before in countries like Argentina and Iceland. While both suffered short term pain, both countries appear to be in substantially better shape than many countries in the EU, for example. If the funny money can eventually be purged from the worldwide system, there will begin to emerge a different, better way of doing things -- hopefully before we all die from global warming.