I so hope the rethuglicans don't sweep this election Steph. I got my fingers crossed here. I would not bet a good sleeping bag on the outcome tho'....

Embracing technology is part of liberal thinking, because new ideas innovate and make great things possible. I am sure the Dem's numbers would be lower if we just stuck to polling people at houses of worship. What if all the interviews were conducted on landlines on sunday morning? Who'd answer then? The illegal housekeeper?

i'm so suspicious of publicly-released polls and the media coverage of elections that i'm not at all surprised at what you found. all the news coverage of elections is about the story that gets each show the most ratings, and saying one side is going to get creamed gets a lot more people worked up and watching that one that tells the truth. it makes a jaded cynic like me raise one eyebrow even higher. good piece.

thank goodness!

This bias was discovered in 2008 by the Pew fellows and it is still true. Being roundly ignored though.
I really do think that the corporate MSM is in on the "Dems are going to "lose BIG" wave. It is a way of influencing the vote.

Mission,
Darlin', hope things go much better for you!

Stellaa,
I have been thinking along the same lines. Folks say that they are going to vote TP because they see the politicians cower but when push comes to shove, they just might vote sanely.

Oryoki Bowl,
Context is everything.
Cell-phone only users tend to be the demographic that votes Democratic: poor, young, students, Hispanic, etc.

Femme forte,
Thanks. There is plenty of skepticism to go around this year, for certain!

Julie,
We shall see...

It's disturbing to realize that polls will make people not bother to vote, since they figure their candidate is going to lose.
This is really important and informative, O'Steph.

Thanks, Aim,
I thnk it is important also. This bad news from corporate MSM and the inaccurate polls are designed, I think, to make folks stay home.

(Two years ago, this news got a lot more play here. I am looking elsewhere and not seeing it anywhere.)

we'll see on Tuesday the only poll that matters

get out and vote Democratic

You got it, Roy! I voted two days ago here in Oregon by mail.

(The reason these polls do count is if they cause folks to stay home.)

One can only hope

America would be insane to turn to the extreme right

good point!

Patrick,
I have become suspicious of all things corporate.
I think we are seeing rage and fear being focused on the wrong enemies. That is insanity.

Zanelle,
I believe there is hope. Most of these races are close.
Huffington post is reporting how these biased results make a difference in ten key Senate races:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/13/pew-research-cell-phone-p_n_761760.html

It is very good news.

Good info, hopeful too, but you gotta wonder if people tell the truth no matter what the medium. Or, who answers whatever kind of phone and why.

Plus, our market is so over-saturated with attack ads on both sides, many are just tuning out. I worry about moderates and typical Dem demographic turnout and have a sinking feeling it will be too low.

These days it seems only angry people vote. And too few of the rest of us.

I hope that it's not a GOP sweep. I've never received a polling call or robo call on my cell. So many younger people, like my daughter, don't even have land lines. Interesting. We'll see what happens Tuesday.

I did a check, although I will admit it wasn't thorough, of the 08 election. the Gallup poll, which claimed to be +/- 3% was off by 14%. Doing a 20th century poll in the modern world is always going to be off.

Sally, Yeah, I knwo that sinking feeling.
I am perhaps too optimistic but it can't hurt!

Roger, I think it is going to be a late night. And there will probably be a lot that will be recounted. I expect it to be close.
Nailbiting close.

ocularnervosa,
Thanks for checking. I remember that John Zogby was the only one who called it.
It would be very nice if the American people surprised the corporations after all their expense.

If you only looked at Fox and CNN, you would thing that there would be "No" democrats left after the election. CNN is getting where is's almost as bad as FOX. I guess getting beat in the ratings everyday is slanting their coverage. Unfortunately, I can't get MSNBC and can only watch CNN, having sworn to all that is Holly not to watch Fox. Maybe I'll watch Tom and Jerry cartoons, they're just as reliable as CNN!

There's also been a tendency for polls to skew Republican due to the fact that there's a huge break based on age in the population, and telephone polls can never get an adequate group of young respondents in terms of filling out their sampling categories (older people answer the phone more even amongst people who do have a land-line). Pollsters make up for it by estimating based on smaller samples in certain groups, especially younger voters. This is why the polls before the '08 election were so far off the results--a lot of them had Obama and McCain neck and neck. Of course Obama creamed him by 8 million votes. Even today, one should probably add 4 or 5 points to Obama's approval rating: he still has a 60%+ rating in the youngest demographic. And the Dems overall have much highter approval ratings right now among young voters. Whether or not they show up is another matter.
rate

Anyone who is suspicious of Pew Research polls can always just look at their methodology.

http://people-press.org/methodology/

They use something called "probability sampling" which relies heavily on the sample size being large enough to get an accurate result.

Republicans are afraid of cellphones. They don't know how they work, and those who do suspect enemy CIA drone alien mother-ship immigrant Communist hootchie-mamas might intercept the signal, so they keep their calls short. That and they're cheap-asses.
Rated, baby.

It may well be. I use a cell phone, am holding my nose and voting a straight Democratic ticket, and no one's bothered asking my opinion about NUTHIN.

I leaned right once upon a time, but I was drunk and couldn't stand straight. Bless me Lord, for I knew not what I was doing :-)

Polls need to go away. They influence too many people.

msm=mighty small mob.

r

I hope you're right o'steph but pollsters are deploying new measures to correct for this well-known bias. For instance, there are the robo-calls that phone every xth number in an exchange. Plus, they massage and adjust the raw data like crazy. I was working in the back room of a campaign in 2006 and our pollster told me that if the raw data had us at 25% we'd win, 15% we'd lose, and 20% was a toss-up. And he was right. The raw data was a shade under 19% and we lost a close one.

Scanner,
Make that Rocky and Bullwinkle!

BOKO,
You always make so much sense. Love it when you comment.
Yeah, here I am an old fart who does not vote "old fart", home all day long cause no one will hire me, but they never call me.
I am definitely more hopeful than I was before I found this PEW report. will be so happy when this is over--one way or another.

Thanks Progressive Liberal,
This is really old news from 2008 but still as true as ever and stamped by PEW.

This is a first for me, folks. I have posted on this story at newsvine, and it has made their top-of-the-vine listed on the first page and is on the high rated on OS.

themanhattankid,
Them new fangled thangs kin burn yr brains right out!

Nanatehay,
I am so very proud of you! Be sure to treat yourself. A peanut buster parfait, maybe? (I love those...)

I don't have a lot of faith in polls. Hopefully there are thousands of us unpolled folks out there that will show up to vote! Interesting post.

Boomer,
Always love your take on things...leaned right...
We are a curious bunch though...

Cyril,
Small-minded, yes! (What you been up to lately?)

Abrawang,
With numbers, you can never be certain. PEW is trustworthy. I hope I am right too.

BlueinTX,
I don't think anyone who has checked in here was asked either.
Here is for a BLUE wave!!

People still have to get out and vote.

********* VOTE LIKE IT'S 2008 *********

The Wright Sight,

That bears repeating:

********* VOTE LIKE IT'S 2008 *********

I have never been polled. Nor do I know anyone who has ever been polled, or anyone who knows anyone who has ever been polled. You follow my drift? Who do they call?

Fay,
Maybe they call folks like mary lin...

Vote for Democrats! Fuck the people and feed the banks!

Well, Jacob, it is Halloween...
I did not click on the link as I do not know you too well.
I get the drift though....

Be sure to vote Nov 2 -- don't sit home and hope the folks in the polls do the voting.