Those ancient Mayan priests had it made. Skilled astronomers, they figured out the solar eclipse cycle, and used that knowledge to convince the unenlightened masses they controlled it. They could describe the behavior that angered the gods and, when the event occurred, would quickly apply the remedy, earning the awe-inspired respect of the people.
In presidential politics, Bring Back The Sun refers to a Great Event that would have happened regardless of that president’s policies, even if those policies had some minor influence on the outcome. The presidents, unlike the Mayan priests, have no knowledge of the timing of the event, or that it will happen. They benefit from being in the right place at the right time. The similarity is in the reaction of the people, most of whom are as open as the Mayan masses were to believing in causal relationships that don’t exist.
President Obama’s main problem – the one that matters most in this midterm election -- is he has failed to Bring Back The Sun. He has recited the stimulus incantation, raised his arms to the sky and ... the darkness persists. This alone can account for most of the Enthusiasm Gap and expected drubbing of the Democrats tomorrow, even though there are other factors.
Because the relationship between the state of the economy, national mood, presidential approval and midterm elections is a fairly well established historical constant, let’s examine how this concept applied in two midterms and under two presidents.
The two presidents in recent history who did Bring Back The Sun are Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. Many voting tomorrow are old enough to have remembered these political-celestial events, so they serve as benchmarks for presidential performance.
President Reagan rode into office in 1980 on a change wave and two years later saw the loss of 27 seats in an already Democratic controlled House. He had failed to Bring Back The Sun, and remnants of the 70s unemployment, stagflation and general Carterian malaise still weighed heavily upon the voters.
By 1984, the economy was starting to rebound, and Reagan won a second term. By 1986 the economy was growing, problem inflation was vanquished, employment was rising and the natives were happy because President Reagan had Brought Back The Sun! Reagan must have been given an extra jolt of favoritism from the gods, as he did what few, if any, have done – he Brought Back The Sun again with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
I lump those two sun-returning events together because even though they have separate story lines in legend, they can be tied together with a far more realistic series of causal events. Let’s look at legend next to reality and see how many Republicans we can upset.
Legend: Reagan cut taxes, deregulated business and attacked unions, and the business community responded by enthusiastically investing to create jobs. He significantly ramped up defense spending and anti-communist rhetoric and the Soviets, seeing they couldn’t keep up militarily, abandoned control of Eastern Europe and gave up their commie ideology.
Reality: Federal Reserve Chairman Volker kept stomping on the growth brakes by keeping interest rates high, and after that anti-inflationary tough love started working, he brought rates down, stimulating economic activity. In 1985, the Saudis threw open the oil spigots, sending petroleum prices crashing downward. In an economy where the value of the dollar and almost every element of the economy are tied to oil, cheaper energy spurred spending and growth.
The Soviets, whose main source of outside capital was selling petroleum, couldn’t produce enough profit at the new, lower prices. They had wasted much of the profits gained during the oil embargo high prices on invading Afghanistan. They couldn’t cut defense spending for political reasons as it was too tied to their domestic economy. Agricultural production was below what was needed to feed their people. They were forced to look to Western countries for loans, and those were granted after the Soviets accepted political concessions. When the Eastern Europeans started to “Tear down this wall,” they did so with the knowledge the Soviets wouldn’t intervene.
President Clinton Brought Back The Sun before the 1998 midterms and, even where the Six Year Itch would predict big losses in the House, the Democrats gained a few seats. Clinton still retains legendary status because of the economic Great Event, and the Democratic masses still sing about his supernatural abilities.
Legend: Clinton and the Democratic Congress pushed through fiscal reforms in ’93, and were punished in the 94 midterms with a Republican wave election that saw them taking the House for the first time in 40 years. Accepting his fate, Clinton worked with the House, made Newt Gingrich his goat, and together, under Clinton’s leadership, they Brought Back The Sun and balanced several budgets.
Reality: The computer Tech Boom caused massive productivity gains and consumer spending. Wages went up, unemployment went down and inflation stayed within reason. The rising wealth caused Federal tax revenues to grow and made the comparatively weak efforts of Newt and Bill look far more responsible for balancing the budget than either deserved. However, Clinton was president, so he gets the credit.
President Obama hasn’t Brought Back The Sun, but that isn’t his fault. Where he has faltered is in trying to convince a skeptical America the sun is on its way back. I don’t know which Democratic strategist led the White House down the politicidal dead end of declaring “Recovery Summer,” but I suspect they’re the same people who told Carter his energy policy needed a theme – Moral Equivalent Of War -- creating the ridicule-worthy acronym: MEOW. They’re probably the same people who told presidential candidate Dukakis that riding in a tank would make him look manly instead of like Princess Leia in drag.
Oh well. The damage is done. The Republicans will take the House, and maybe Senate. Be comforted in knowing they can only do more harm, as they are ideologically addicted to destructive economic opportunism. Hold tight to your cash and spend it sparingly on only those things you need.
Don’t waste your money buying sunscreen.
Dukakis - AP photo Princess Leia -- 20th Century Fox
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Ted Frier
The Flylooper
Ben Sen
mishima666
Paul Nevins
Ron Robinson
Salon.com
Comments
I agree. The Obama people say they knew that, within 2 years, the public would be disillusioned over the economy. Why that didn't translate into Obama explaining this to the people up front, in the beginning remains a mystery. If you know you can't bring back the sun, at least be honest and look like you're trying as hard as can be.
My guess is he'll follow the Republicans down the wrong path, but at least he'll be able to blame the Other Party...if he's skilled enough to isolate them for the sake of blame. I'm not convinced the White House has those skills, though.
There is a truth in saying the only time GW's numbers went up, Americans died. But making such comparisons only sounds whiny. Obama is an adult, and so has to be responsible for his own actions, or lack of.
Politics has always been about perceptions, but it also used to include public discussions of policy by partisan AND independent experts. Now it's that binary template you and I both see, and the truth can only get lucky to be known.
When the Dems abandoned working class voters in exchange for corporate support, they put themselves in the same place as Repubs -- so devoid of actual public benefit they need to deal in abstractions.
What's so painful is knowing that they could win if they dropped the corporate middle man and showed the working class they will represent their interests.
I have wondered where we would be now if Democrats had stuck with principle, even through those years where the economy masked their walking away. They figured the GOP was successful, so they couldn't compete unless they started taking big money for ad campaigns.
If they had stuck with principles, they'd be in tall cotton now, as some of the old folks 'round here would say.
The biggest problem the Republicans have is gaining power and having to prove they know what to do. Come to think of it, that seems to be the Dem's problem also.
I can't wait for the next "change!"
In spite of that, Obama and the Dems managed to accomplish a great deal in less than two years. Too bad they didn't work hard enough to sell those accomplishments until it was too late. They should have taken a page from the Rove Repugnut playbook -- I'll give 'em credit for one thing only -- they sure know how to sell shit for shinola.
The possibilities are infinite ...............
What happens tomorrow is but a blip!
Tomorrow may be one small blip for mankind, but it's one large crash for a man
Under these circumstances, the only way to balance the federal budget without raising taxes, fees, duties, premiums, and tariffs, and without reducing those who now qualify as beneficiaries under these non-discretionary programs, is to eliminate all discretionary spending. This would eliminate almost all funding for the federal government outside of the Departments of Health and Human Services, the Social Security administration and a portion of the Department of Agriculture.
That's right -- no Departments of Defense, Treasury, Justice, Veterans Affairs, Interior, Labor, Commerce, Transportation, Energy, Education, . . no CIA, no NASA, no EPA, . . . . no Congress, no West Wing, no Supreme Court. From this point of view, the $1.5 trillion we borrowed last year to underwrite our deficit went to fund all of these federal functions. . . two wars, interest payments on the national debt . . . . along with the rents, utilities, and salaries it took to maintain their offices and staffs.
It remains an open question whether this nation can continue to support the level of consumerism that has underwritten our economy for so long. In the event this sun does not return to us, both soon and brightly, we will have no choice but to deal with the darkness of rethinking what our federal government, the largest business in America, should do to eliminate large parts of itself.
When that time comes, as it apparently must, then real change will come to America.