Procopius

Procopius
Location
Rockford, Illinois, USA
Birthday
February 05
Bio
I'm a regular middle aged guy, living in a regular middle class neighborhood, in a regular middle-sized community in the middle of America. I am an expatriate Texan transplanted to the Midwest, and wondering how I got here, and where I'm headed.

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Salon.com
JANUARY 20, 2010 11:04AM

Can We Prevent Another Mega-Disaster?

Rate: 11 Flag

The images from Haiti keep coming, and they keep getting worse.  At first, before the press arrived with its digital cameras and satellite communications equipment, we could only imagine the developing horror.  Now, we see it live and in high definition on our big screen TV’s.  Viewing the devastation is unavoidable, and rightly so.  It is heartbreaking to watch, but we need to see it. 

 

haiti victim

 

 

As individuals, we send our money to what we hope are responsible and effective charitable organizations.  This time, the amount of money my family has at its disposal is smaller than during the last great crisis, but still, we send.  And we feel guilty for not sending more.

 I know the money helps.  It saves lives.  Still, I am discouraged.  Will a Haiti rebuilt be an improvement on the Haiti destroyed?  Will our donations enable the survivors to do anything more than just survive?  Will their suffering be diminished?  Will they resent us for not doing more?  Will they be any less vulnerable to the next natural disaster that will surely hit again, and hit soon?

 

haiti downtown

 

 

How often are we confronted with such devastation?  Is it really 4 years since the tsunami?  As individuals, my family sent more money for that disaster.  We had more to send then.  But the sheer number of victims – maybe as many as 230,000 -- far exceeded the number of those affected in Haiti, so our per capita contribution was actually smaller.

The disasters keep coming.  Less than two years ago, the cyclone Nargis slammed into Burma, killing at least 138,000.  That was just a two months before the more famous Sichuan earthquake struck China, resulting in the death of 70,000 people there.

A tropical cyclone hit Bangladesh in 1970 that killed as many as 500,000 inhabitants of that country and neighboring India.  Some cities lost nearly half of their population, and smaller towns were literally washed off the face of the earth.

 

bangladesh cyclone

 

There was a time not all that long ago when mega-disasters hit the United States.  At least 8,000 likely died during the hurricane that practically destroyed Galveston, Texas, in 1900.  That was more than 1 of every 6 inhabitants of the island. 

 

galveston

 

The Johnstown, Pennsylvania flood of 1889 killed over 2,200 people, over 7% of the town’s population.

Of course, fatality numbers like Galveston’s 8,000, or Johnstown’s 2,200, pale next to the numbers coming out of Haiti.  The population was much less in the Galveston of 1900 than it is today, so a similar storm today would result in far more fatalities, right?  Wrong.  In 1983, Hurricane Alicia hit the same area of Southeast Texas that was affected by the Galveston hurricane of 1900.  A category 3 storm, its tidal surge along the low-lying communities on Galveston Bay reached 12 feet, not much different from the surge that hit Galveston in 1900.  In 1983, however, there were millions living in the storm’s path, not thousands.  Yet, the death rate for Alicia was only 21.  Sad certainly, but not the mega-disaster it could have been.

Even Hurricane Katrina, as bad as it was, was still nowhere near as devastating on a per capita basis as the 1900 Galveston hurricane, and cannot be compared to the cyclones that have wrought so much tragedy in places like Bangladesh and Burma.

Why don’t mega-disasters strike the United States, or other developed nations?  We all know the answers.  Building codes are strict, and strictly enforced.  Early notification systems are in place.  There is an infrastructure that enables entire communities to evacuate when catastrophe looms.  Following the Galveston hurricane of 1900, the city built a 12 foot sea wall that still stands today as a bulwark against another storm surge of similar proportion.

Similar measures that could be taken in the world's poorest nations to reduce their risk to mega-disasters would be very expensive.  A country like Haiti cannot afford them on its own.  To reduce its vulnerability to future catastrophes, American aid will be needed, and it won’t come cheap.  Can we afford it?  Of course we can.

The Iraq war has already cost Americans close to $1 trillion.  As of July, 2009, the Department of Defense’s financial obligations in support of the Iraq mission totaled $7.3 billion per month.  DoD’s monthly obligations for Afghanistan, prior to the recently announced surge, were $3.6 billion.  This means the total financial obligation for the two wars comes to nearly $11 billion per month.

The United States has pledged $100 million for emergency relief to Haiti.  This is in addition to the economic and military assistance that is a normal part of our foreign aid to that country.  In 2008, Haiti received $265 million in foreign aid from the United States.  Assuming the figures for 2010 would be similar, the total amount of aid and disaster relief for Haiti will be about $365 million, less than 0.3% of the amount we will spend to prosecute our wars on the other side of the globe.

If the United States has the economic ability to wage two wars at a cost of trillions of dollars, do we not also have the ability to ensure one of our neighbors does not descend into further chaos and despair?  Do we really want another Somalia a few hundred miles off of our coast?  Can we afford to allow a narco-state to develop there, where the only security is that which is offered by competing warlords?  A failed state in Haiti could be far more expensive to manage than a serious and effective program to rebuild that nation in such a way that it can withstand the next natural disaster that comes its way.

Is it too much to ask that our government redirect its resources to support something constructive in our own back yard, rather than pursue a policy on the other side of the world that too often builds hatred and distrust, rather than security and comity?

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The problem is that the Haitians don't want our help other than our money and our food. They don't want to take our advice.
Procopius, my friend, I often see in other blogs the amount of money we are spending on the war and how that money can be better used if directed into other directions. I can not argue with that logic from either you are other bloggers.

I will however merely ask a question. What would happen if we woke up in the morning and decided to completely pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan? What if we brought everyone home and took the money we would have spent on the war and poured it into all the many places it could be used better? What do you think would happen, in fact, what do any of the others who visit here think would happen? I would love to hear your different scenarios.
I remembered that commercial "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature", as I read your post. I was four months old when Hurricane Hazel hit Wilmington, N.C. in 1954. Back then, the coast was mostly deserted, or it would have been one of the worst ever. As the populations grow, and people build these big houses on coasts they know will someday be hit by a hurricanes, is just stupid. As for poor countries like Haiti, whose population has exploded, these are just band-aids we are putting there. It will happen again, as will another Bangladesh, and another tsunami somewhere else. Mother Nature rules, and besides screwing up the planet more, theres nothing we can do about it. Great Post!
perdidochas, they may be more receptive to our help and advice now than they previously were. We have given aid to countries frequently under the condition that the aid be used for specific purposes. Not ideal, but perhaps necessary in a country like Haiti.

Torman, we obviously cannot just leave tomorrow. But we can begin a serious and orderly withdrawal. If we do so, there will be a period of instability as various factions vie for power. I think that is happening anyway, the only difference is that it will happen in a more condensed fashi0n. We don't have any good options, and anything we do, including remaining there, will result in violence. I think we also need to understand that whatever form a government takes control in Iraq and Afghanistan, we need to try to engage them, not isolate them. if the government is hostile to our efforts, then we'll have to disengage, but we should try to be friendly with them, just as we now are with Vietnam.

scanner, it will happen again, but it doesn't have to be a mega-disaster every time. the cyclones that hit Bangladesh every 5 or 10 years are not as devastating as they were in 1970, because even that country has made infrastructure improvements. A sea wall, reforestation project, and better construction could do wonders for Haiti, and provide jobs for its unemployed.
Steve, the normal amount of aid given to Haiti is shockingly miniscule when you compare it to U.S. aid given to other countries such as Israel. There certainly will be no end to natural disasters and countries that have been ravaged over the past number of years will most likely continue unless the type of changes you suggest could be implemented.
Well ... one way to look at it is that our military is being paid regardless, whether they are in Afghanistan or delivering food, civil engineering or mobile hospitals to Haiti. We can multi-task ... but if it will do long-term good in Haiti is another question. There are things we can do - but over the long term, a lot depends on the Haitians themselves.
One of the interesting ideas that I have seen knocking around the blogosphere, WRT to dangerous and unstable housing stock built out of un-reinforced con-blocks, is a suggestion to lightly renovate shipping containers as temporary housing units, and bring them by the barge-load to Haiti.
But again - we'd have to work with the Haitians. They would have to own the solution, it can't be imposed from outside.
Idea 1: Make Haiti a US protectorate
Idea 2: Send Americans there to work on the construction

ooops. My bad. We've already been doing that for a century.

Idea 3: cancel all of haiti's debt for having the temerity to take away France's profit from slavery.
It's not too much to ask. It's just that nobody is listening. I'm happy Americans have a conscience and try to help those who need it most, but why aren't we focusing our resources here at home? George Clooney is hosting a fund raiser for Haiti. Okay. That's nice. But when is he hosting a fund raiser for all those people living out on the street or in shelters, for kids who go hungry every day, for the mothers who cry themselves to sleep at night because they can't care for their children -- and all the others. Clooney and his ilk can well afford to help right from their own pockets. I don't know how to organize it. I just would like to see it done.
R
Asking to redirect resources from the battlefields to Haiti isn't too much to ask. Asking our political leaders to defy the military-industrial lobbyists might be too much. After rebuilding the physical structure of Port-au-Prince, what then? Haiti needs massive investment in a country with a generally under-educated, under-skilled population. A start might be a financial institution(s) set up to make small business loans to individuals or small groups who are looking to open neighborhood shops to service the local community.
Obviously, we (the US and Canada are carrying the combat burden in Afghanistan) need to get out as soon as possible in as orderly a fashion as possible, but those left behind will have to, as Sgt. Mom said about Haitians, "own the solution" to their respective countries' ills.

Will they do it? Damned if I know, but I'll be double-damned if I want the troops to stay on.
Steve,

Your case is clear, morally right, and well-supported. I agree fully.

You ask, “Is it too much to ask that our government redirect its resources to support something constructive in our own back yard, rather than pursue a policy on the other side of the world that too often builds hatred and distrust, rather than security and comity?”

While I share your underlying sentiment, my answer to that question is, “Yes, it is,” because that is not what our government is set up to do. Our government is set up to protect corporations, property and profits. Anything that doesn’t have cash return is not truly valued.

Enter Naomi Klein’s “Disaster Capitalism”.

The first step in that process is to occupy the targeted country, gain control, and the best way to do that is militarily.

From Alternet:

“That militarization is already underway. This week the US is sending thousands of troops and soldiers to the country. The Haitian government has signed over control of its capital airport to the US. Brazil and France have already lodged complaints that US military planes are now being given priority over other flights at the international airport.
“On January 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a $100 million loan to Haiti to help with relief efforts. However, Richard Kim at
The Nation wrote that this loan was added onto $165 million in debt made up of loans with conditions "including raising prices for electricity, refusing pay increases to all public employees except those making minimum wage and keeping inflation low." This new $100 million loan has the same conditions. Kim writes, ‘in the face of this latest tragedy, the IMF is still using crisis and debt as leverage to compel neoliberal reforms.’”


Our nation and those most prominent in the IMF have helped create the disastrous conditions that existed just prior to this earthquake and the view at this point is not one of let’s help THEM, it is one of how can WE profit from this. That is the corporate globalization model that has become the primary foundation of our government.

Until we, as a people, deal with that underlying truth, your question will not be addressed honestly.

RATED
Rick, you probably noticed that the first half of my post was rather despairing in tone, and the second half a bit more moralistic. Your comment, and the truths it expresses, are part of the reason for the initial despair. It is an endless cycle, and the only thing that changes is that the situation worsens, and the country is more and more susceptible to catastrophe. If Haiti is not rebuilt better, with new opportunities for its people, the next disaster will hit soon, and could even exceed this one in its toll.

xenon, your comment goes hand in hand with Rick's in a way. Additional crushing debt isn't the answer.

Sgt., the idea of temporary housing like you suggests makes sense. I do think we could add to the funds needed for rebuilding haiti (and our own nation's infrastructure, not to mention New Orleans) by reducing the size of our military budget, and by reducing our commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

To everyone else who has commented, thank you for stopping by and adding your voice to my semi-rant.