The main reason why McCain will win is that for the Republicans losing is not an option and they will do whatever is necessary to keep the White House, including:
1) Dirty tricks - if you can think of it, the McCain campaign will use it. The race card, outright lies or just about anything and everything else.
2) Fear - raised terrorist alerts, national security issues, lack of military experience. The past Presidential elections have been won by the Republican party using fear as a weapon, so why stop now.
3) Because the American voting public is just plain stupid and they have shown time and again that they will vote against their own best interests if the campaign ad is clever enough.
As for Florida, Florida has been under Republican control for so long that even if Obama wins the general vote by a wide margin the chances are that he will not get the electoral votes. See "dirty tricks" above.
Besides putting on an interesting primary race, what else have the Democrats done during the eight years of Bush's presidency to ensure the American people that they care one iota about the health and well being of the American public?
The short answer: NADA!
Did they impeach Bush for lying to the Congress and the American public about the weapons of mass destructions? NO
Did they enact legislation which might helped to prevent the current financial crisis? NO and not only that, they willingly went along for the ride.
Have they addressed, as a unified party, any of the hundreds of issues which have an adverse impact on the average American, such as rising health care costs, rising college costs, rising energy costs? Once again a big NO.
And now the Democrats are going to point to the Republicans and say "Don't vote for them, they don't care about you." Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
And speaking of color, color me disillusioned.