Among the kind of white progressives I hang out with, it used to be a kind of joke that one black person would be invited to every party.

Eventually, there were enough black people around our campus that being black wasn't such a big deal. Then, it became cool to invite a token gay person everywhere.  I think there was a Sex and the City episode on that theme as well.

Now, no one can have a real party unless they invite a transsexual.

Even in Kentucky.

But I'm wondering if Republicans aren't going to become so scarce someday that they actually have value as token guests for progressive gatherings.

"Look everybody, there's the Republican we invited."

At least that's the public opinion trend surrounding the Republican Party.

Here the "favorable opinion levels" for Republicans as reported by Research 2000 for DailyKos.

All-- 24%

Ethnic/Racial/Gender
Blacks -- 3%
Latinos-- 8%
Whites-- 31%
Other -- 9%
Women --16%
Men --32%

It's not tremendously surprising that 94% of blacks and Democrats view the Republicans unfavorably. But so do 78% of independents, 86% of Latinos, 79% of women. Even 64% of the most favorable group for Republicans--men--view the Republicans poorly. Greg Sargent argues that Republican opposition to the Sonia Sotomayor nomination to the Supreme Court has killed Republican support among Latinos. But favorable opinions of Republicans among all groups are extremely low. Has the Sotomayor nomination harmed the Republicans among a wide range of groups or are the various groups unhappy with Republican conduct in general?

It's the latter I think.

"Hey, honey. We need a little diversity on our guest list. You know that Republican guy from work. He's actually a nice guy. We should invite him too."

Region
Northeast--8%
Midwest--18%
West--29%
South--45%

Favorable opinions of the Republicans are so rare in the Northeast that you could add some spice to your party by inviting someone who would say something nice about Dick Cheney. The South is not exactly solid for the GOP. Forth-five percent of Southerners view them unfavorably as well. But outside the South, Republican support is in something like a death spin.

Age:
18-29--9%
30-44--35%
45-59--21%
60+--23%

The Republicans are pretty much at token level among young voters as well. It would be sort of interesting to investigate why people in "early middle age" are less disgusted with the GOP than other groups.

Maybe they're not paying attention.

If I were a Republican consultant looking at these numbers, I would be thinking about starting a new political party. Right now the Republicans don't look like they're popular enough to support all the GOP pollsters and political consultants out there. As a result, my ability to live in the manner to which I've become accustomed might depend on getting away from the Republican Party.

How bad is it? A Republican candidate could probably get 35-45% of the vote if the election were held today--35% if it's Sarah Palin, 45% for a John McCain clone. Given that only 24% of voters think favorably of the Republicans, they would have to get almost a third of their vote from (11% out of 35%) from voters who have an unfavorable opinion of them to get to the landslide level of 35%. To get 45% of the vote, the Republicans would have to corral almost 1/2 (21% out of 45%) of their votes from the unfavorably minded.

As for winning in 2012, the Republicans can almost forget about that. They really need to focus on survival. Right now, the Republicans look like the Bear Stearns of the political world--aggressive, pugnacious, unpopular, and doomed.

Hey, that's another idea for our next party--an investment banker.