Even though several leading Republicans are running for President, none has declared a candidacy.  Here's a quick breakdown on why they will or will not run.  I'll start with the top contenders and work my way down.

 THE TOP TIER

Sarah Palin.  With Sarah Palin, it's all about the Benjamins.  That's why she's a lock to run.  If Palin runs a big negative campaign against Obama, her brand is going to be even bigger with conservatives and she'll spend Obama's second term raking in tens of millions a year.  If Palin doesn't run, her brand will slip and the reality shows, Fox contract, speaking engagements, and book deals will all be downsized.  Palin's going to run because she doesn't want to live on one or two million a year any more.  Who can blame her?

Mitt Romney.  Romney's going to run because he has nothing else left to do with his life. 

Mike Huckabee.   Hard to read.  It's all about the Benjamins for Huckabee as well.  There's just fewer Benjamins involved in Huck's case.  Huckabee is more than happy to live on a million or two a year and is happy with his moderately lucrative media gigs.    So, he'll pass.  Huck isn't eager to see thousands of attack ads about his pardoning a guy who went on to shoot four cops in Seattle either. 

THE SECOND TIER

Newt Gingrich.  Newt's not running and, once again, it's all about the Benjamins.  Gingrich wants to be president of the U. S. in the worst way.  It's the closest he'll ever get to fulfilling his real ambition of being world dictator.  But Gingrich won't run because he knows that getting 9% of the primary vote in South Carolina would severely undercut his little empire of profitable non-profits, think tanks, news gigs, and speaking engagements.  Newt's going to tease and tease hard, but he's not going to run. 

THE THIRD TIER AND BEYOND.

Michele Bachmann.  If Palin doesn't run, Bachmann will run.  If Palin does run, Bachmann's tease will help her vice-presidential ambitions.

Tim Pawlenty.  Sure to run.   No particular reason though.

Haley Barbour.  Haley's going to run a hopeless campaign for the same reason Brett Favre refused to retire.  There's nothing going on in Mississippi. 

Rick Santorum.  Running.  Like R0mey, Santorum doesn't have anything else to do with his life.

Mitch Daniels.  Not Running.  All the "thoughtful Republicans" want Daniels, but that's not a very big constituency and Daniels is "thoughtful" enough to know it. 

Donald Trump.  Not Running.  Eventually, somebody would remind Trum that he would need to shake hands with lots of disease-ridden politicians and voters.  Trump won't do it.

Chris Christie.  Not Running.  His delusions of grandiosity are focused on 2016.

Jon Huntsman.  Running.  For some reason, Huntsman's delusions of grandiosity for 2016 seem to require a failed campaign in 2012.

Various Right-wing hopes--Rick Scott (Governor of Florida), Nikki Haley (Governor of South Carolina), and Rick Perry (Governor of Texas) would all be tempted to jump in if Palin doesn't run. 

But Palin's running.