Dr. Keynes Was Right

It's the Distribution, Stupid
NOVEMBER 9, 2012 2:10PM

Spinning Wheel

To quote Blood, Sweat, and Tears:

Spinnin' wheel's spinnin' true
Drop all your troubles by the river side
Ride a painted pony,
Let the spinnin' wheel fly.
What goes around, comes around.  In order to have a stable economy:  those that has, spend; those that spend, has.  Previous missives…

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NOVEMBER 7, 2012 2:53PM

Ann's Horse Didn't Win, Either

My, my.  A recent missive here asserted that Gallup was wrong.  Gallup was wrong right up to the end, although according to 538, they had inched toward Obambi at the end.  Didn't quite get there.  But that's not today's topic.

Turns out, Willard had his version of Triage!!  I… Read full post »

OCTOBER 24, 2012 2:42PM

Merry Quant

The return of the mini (and micro-mini) skirt does my heart good.  Once again, we wait for the heaven sent Sharon Stone moment.  Ah, not so often.  I do wonder:  do our Merry Quants know they're the descendants of such a creative mind?  Or, are they just in it for the… Read full post »

OCTOBER 24, 2012 1:13PM

The Next Time Bomb

Our Regular Reader knows my fascination with Bermuda; there've been more than a few missives about the country.  Most reflect my belief that Bermuda represents a real life, real time social petri dish.  As Bermuda goes, so will the USofA.  The reason is straightforward:  Bermuda a… Read full post »

OCTOBER 21, 2012 2:11PM

A Horse's Ass?

It would appear the Gallup is trotting down the same bridle path as The Literary Digest.  While likely not as well known as the Chicago Tribune "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline, it is actually more significant today.

In retrospect, the polling techniques employed by the magazine were to blame. Al… Read full post »
OCTOBER 18, 2012 4:05PM

Come Into My Parlor, Said The Spider

A minor, but recurring, theme of this endeavor is the fragility of advert driven business, web division.  As most know, virtually everything on the web is either advert based, or shopping (well, by most accounts porn is the majority by far).  Deriving one's revenue from folks who may or may… Read full post »

OCTOBER 17, 2012 2:35PM

Lefty Loosy, Righty Tighty

It's not often that I send regular reader off to some other post, but this is the exception.  I'm going to explore the data referenced, just as I hope you will.  There's more to quant than predicting the next 10 bagger.

For what it's worth is.R() is new to R-bloggers and already… Read full post »

OCTOBER 14, 2012 7:07PM

The Future of Investing

There's one point about which no contention exists:  return on investment is generated by increased productivity of the invested capital.  However, as The Great Recession (and Spain's current problem as explained in todays NY Times) has made clear to anyone with at least a functioning brain… Read full post »

OCTOBER 14, 2012 5:10PM

Confirmation Day, Part The Second

While there are bunches, I'll leave it at this.  I've seen her on Maher's show once or twice, and been impressed.  Since she stole my title, in essence anyway, I'll stay pissed for a day or two. Read full post »

OCTOBER 11, 2012 10:03AM

We'll Need a Bigger Boat

Why did/do flunked out math and physics PhD candidates go into finance/business admin/economics?  The quants.  Follow the money.  They started in earnest in the 1970s, and became the Mongol hoards (or a school of squid?) which cratered the global economy a couple of years ago (we are p… Read full post »

OCTOBER 9, 2012 10:16PM

What Would Jesus Think?

The subtitle of this endeavor, "It's the Distribution, Stupid", emphasizes the reality:  The Great Recession is just the latest manifestation of laissez faire capitalism, which has few winners and many losers.  And, given the lotto mentality foisted on stupid people ("I'm gonna by an NBA st… Read full post »

OCTOBER 7, 2012 1:19PM

When Good News Happens to Bad People

Back in February, there was "Lies, Damn Lies, and the BLS", which you can find in any of the various incarnations of this endeavor.  At the time, the numbers came out better than the pundits predicted.  It happened again this week (for September), but since it is the second but last… Read full post »

OCTOBER 7, 2012 12:28PM

Let's Get Physcal

A recurring theme in this endeavor has been that the Euro was doomed from the beginning, since it was wrapped in a straitjacket monetary policy with nothing more to show for the effort; at least The Emperor was merely naked.  And when The Great Recession arrived, it all went to hell… Read full post »

OCTOBER 5, 2012 1:27PM

Many Happy Returns

Today brings not one, but two, cautionary tales.  The reason for doing quants, either for anonymous blogging or mucho dinero, is to deal with issues which can only be answered with data, not policy.  I'm on record that policy trumps data every time, but with the proviso that the policy can… Read full post »

OCTOBER 2, 2012 12:33PM

The Life of Riley

Some have been asking about the "pension problem", which I've alluded to in recent posts.  I said I'd post about it, but that the topic was familiar.  And with good reason: I did so over a year ago.

Saves my fingers, a bit. Read full post »

OCTOBER 1, 2012 8:39AM

Death Sprial

They just won't listen.  Mainstream pundits, and capitalists alike, have decided "Weakening demand is forcing new and accelerated cost reductions at companies from Bank of America and Hewlett-Packard to Staples and Eastman KodakCo, dimming the outlook for an already struggling U.S. labor market.… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 30, 2012 1:35PM

Confirmation Day, Part The First

If it's Sunday, then it's NYT Sunday Business and Sunday Review.  As a young Episcopalian, I had my Confirmation Day; now it's time to look into these two major sections in search of Mainstream Punditry confirming past musings.  We'll see if there's a posting here each week.  May be ye… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 26, 2012 7:41PM

Money For Nuthin, The Picture

So, what's the data look like?  Among Real Quants, pie charts are viewed as stinky doo, whilst Suits love 'em.  Figures.  I'm not a big fan of them, not so surprisingly, but these data are simple enough, and the chart stark enough (whilst still being honest) that it can't be passed… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 26, 2012 12:48PM

Money For Nuthin

With all the moaning about the "fairness" of capital gains taxation, it's about time that this endeavor took a look, don't you think?  There's both quant aspects and macro aspects.

On the quant side, is:  what numbers matter?  From the point of those who assert that capital gains is tot… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 8:51AM

Are We There Yet?

(A post on Seeking Alpha, to which I had commented, came up with a stream of new comments.  I was moved to add another, which is included here for your amusement.  The subject was the future of smartphones, and Apple's place in that future with the 5 as exemplar.)

Given that the… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 8:32AM

One FLEWWN Over the Cuckoo's Nest

After last nights Packers-Seahawks game, the truth about NFL/Goodell is plain as Palin:  they're just the WWE.  Probably always was, what with "parity" and government sponsored arenas.  Talk about welfare moochers?  Sports team owners, and these NFL are the worst, own almost no ph… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 23, 2012 4:48PM

Listen to the Bald Headed Guy

As regular reader must have figured out by now, while I dearly love stats/quant, I've been skeptical of mathy staty economics/business ever since grad school when I was subjected to a bunch of flunked out math and physics Ph.D. re-purposed into assistant professors of economics.  This was the mi… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 20, 2012 2:45PM

Like a Ton of Bricks

Somewhere in this canon (or the other one; way too lazy to go looking), I mused that the future of eTailing was retailing.  The reasoning is straightforward:  the cost of fuel, air and ground, will only rise.  We either run out of crude or we substantially reduce how much we use… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 19, 2012 10:14PM

Another Brick in The Wall

We don't need no education...

The Left Wing, and a bit of the Right Wing (sort of), are playing the education tune as the panacea to the "middle class is dead" problem.  Alas, it can't work.  The flawed assumption is that our (global) economy can absorb millions of folks doing well paid… Read full post »

SEPTEMBER 13, 2012 4:42PM

A Globe Theatrical

Well, give a rousing USofA welcome to Elizabeth III, queen of all she surveys.  Will she raise the USofA out of its doldrums?  Not likely.  But it will be fun for the Wall Street crowd, being as how they live a Globe sort of life, trodding the boards and giving us… Read full post »