Dr. Keynes Was Right

It's the Distribution, Stupid
JUNE 29, 2014 12:58PM

Gaol in Bermuda

My beloved Bermuda, based on just one trip and following the news remotely, has been, to my mind, a life-size petri dish for the Right Wingnuts in the USofA.  Not least because Bermuda continued on its support for The Rebel Cause of 1861 for more than a century.  The on-line 'Gazette'Read full post »

JUNE 25, 2014 9:33AM

The End of The Road

John Barth, for those reading fiction in the 60s and 70s, was a minor cult hero.  Kind of the Pynchon a half a generation before Pynchon.  Not as prolific, and most fun from his first three books, late 50s:  "The Floating Opera", "The End of The Road", and "The Sotweed Factor". … Read full post »

JUNE 24, 2014 12:59PM

Who's Your Big Brother?

To answer the question, in general it ain't the damn Gummint.

JUNE 23, 2014 2:24PM

A Capital Idea

This posting, yet another attempt to game the market, asserts that QE is, to some degree, responsible for the mess we're in:

I am open to the idea we have entered a period of structurally low volatility due to increased regulatory burden and flow on effects from the decline of institutional… Read full post »

There wasn't intended to be a Part The Second, but in reviewing (after hitting "Save", naturally) the text, the punch line and trail of breadcrumbs to same is less than obvious.  Hindsight, and all that.

Since the point of part the first was:  The quants took a beating on this one, a… Read full post »

JUNE 16, 2014 3:58PM

Data Driven to Distraction

OK, twist my arm.  It's Cantor time.

David Carr titles today's piece, "Eric Cantor's Defeat Exposed a Beltway Journalism Blind Spot" (my dead trees version has a slightly different headline).  Much of his writing is about the evisceration of newspaper staffs, but he also, obliquely, takes ai… Read full post »

In a comment to "Apps Uber Alles" in one of its myriad incarnations, ONL remarked "And the IT industry is the least labor intensive industry ever -- in the history of mankind."  I further commented that this was, sorta kinda, true but that it depends.  And would require (or I wanted… Read full post »

JUNE 12, 2014 2:18PM

Apps Uber Alles

Let's review.  WhatsApp had about 50 bodies and sold for $3 billion, and likely in the end, more. Uber is valued at $18 billion, and has, according to reports, 550 bodies right now.  Given how much longer it's been around, I'd assert they're both in the same ballpark vis-a-vis development a… Read full post »

JUNE 12, 2014 11:58AM

The Origin of Specie

Some may recall these endeavors' reporting a few months back on the so-called myth of Dr Copper:  it appeared, according to reports, that Chinese businesses were using copper stores as surrogate specie.  Some saw the fall in price as an omen of larger collapse.  Well.  The reasoni… Read full post »

JUNE 8, 2014 5:07PM

Chrome Dome

Bald headed guys like Celko (and, nearly, Your 'Umble Servant) get called chrome dome in jest or anger.  California Chrome's owner (well, one of them) has been ranting that the other owners of horses in the races, specifically the Belmont, were cowards.  Chrome Dumb, in the view of "traditi… Read full post »

JUNE 5, 2014 11:41AM

Serial Killers

In the bad old days, Bill Gates would try to parry the monopolist meme by saying that MicroSoft needed to be left alone so it could "innovate".  Nevermind that from day one it co-opted and/or stole everything it made.  BASIC came from Dartmouth.  DOS came from Seattle Computer.  O… Read full post »

JUNE 3, 2014 8:55AM

Is It a Bull, Or Is It a Steer?

Bull or bullshit???  Of late, the market pundits have been making noise with two assertions:
1) longest bull market in history
2) active investing is stupid

Well, let's see.  Here's a graph of the Dow from January, 2003 to June, 2014.  Notice anything interesting?

(I got this…

Read full post »

MAY 31, 2014 12:22PM

A Tail of Two Pundits

It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.  So, today the New York Times put up dueling analyses of Amazon's blitzkrieg on Hatchette publishing.  Joe Nocera, staff pundit versus Bob Kohn participant in the battle.

I'll leave it to the reader to judge which is the true pundit… Read full post »

MAY 30, 2014 1:18PM

The Ballad of Casey Jones

Casey Jones was an engineer.  A real, live train engineer, not a financial engineer.  But, as they did, he crashed and burned.  What seems to be the original:

'Twas around this curve he saw a passenger train;
Something happened in Casey's brain;
Fireman jumped off, but Casey stayed on,
He… Read full post »
MAY 29, 2014 1:57PM

How to Be a Weatherman

All those amateur algorithmic stock touts on R-bloggers must be experiencing sphinters tight enough to hold a fishing line with a breaching marlin at the other end.  Why?  Well, as your local TV weatherman puts it, every now and again, predicting the weather sometimes means just going out t… Read full post »

MAY 28, 2014 2:49PM

Good Old Saint Nick

Just a reminder (it's been a while), but you should keep track of Nick Carr.  I've been remiss, myself, so face-slap, too.  It happens that the current post is a blurb for his next book.  Good on him. Read full post »

MAY 26, 2014 12:00PM

Krugman Gets It

For the first time, that I've seen Krugman states the crux of the matter:

The policy mistakes that created the euro crisis -- mainly creating a unified currency without the kind of banking and fiscal union that a single currency demands -- basically had nothing to do with the welfare state,… Read full post »
MAY 20, 2014 1:48PM

Godzilla [update]


More than once, these endeavors have laid The Great Recession at the feet of The Giant Pool of Money.  Yes Virginia, there is a global excess supply of savings over demand for moolah for physical investment.  That was true back in the beginning of the 'aughts, and it remains at… Read full post »

MAY 17, 2014 4:36PM

There's No Whining in Baseball

Just when you thought (you did, didn't you?) we were safe from bubbles, the Chinese had to go and ruin it all.  You've likely read the recent news that their segue from American housing securitizations to domestic ones has come to a bit of a bumpy patch.  Turns out, Asia generally,… Read full post »

MAY 16, 2014 2:32PM

Conflict of Interest

A theme of these endeavors, which emerged from them rather than motivated their creation, is that when policy conflicts with data, policy wins and data loses.  Now, this observation is, generally, not true when data of the physical world is the subject.  Brownian motion and microarrays spri… Read full post »

MAY 12, 2014 5:15PM

Tiny Tim

Was out getting the meager needs have we for suppa, when Geithner pops up on "All Things Considered", examined by Robert Siegel.  Three doses of self-absorbed tool of the Banksters in just two days!!??  He's flogging his self-defense tome, "Stress Test", the point being his stress, of cours… Read full post »

MAY 9, 2014 1:39PM

Joe Sixpack

The key to those wonderful six-pack abs is a solid core.  And light, right eating.  How's Apple's core doing?  For some time, there's been a continuing argument that either a) Steve died, so did the company or b) Steve took the company out of the world of computing into one of… Read full post »

One submeme (if that's a word, which isn't a cylindrical meat sandwich) of these endeavors is that today's "innovative" economy is evermore advert pushers exploding from the body a la Alien (yuck!).  Or, in line with Krugman (2005):

In other words, a fuller answer to my former neighbor would be… Read full post »
MAY 2, 2014 2:42PM

Things Go Better With Koch

Wow. Lots to babble about today. Let's get to it.

Since Nate left the NYT, the Times has created a group that they call "The Upshot", which has the remit to talk about data, graphics, and policy.  Today was the release of April's employment numbers, and the mainstream pundits are aghast.  Wh… Read full post »

APRIL 25, 2014 6:46PM

The Problem With Slavery

This essay has been simmering for quite some time.  Recent events and others' essays have proven too much.  It will out.

Let's start with the head exploding op-ed page of today's dead trees NYT: in the left column is the Right Wing Brooks and in the right column is the Left WingRead full post »