Dr. Keynes Was Right

It's the Distribution, Stupid
JANUARY 23, 2015 9:39PM

The End of the Road, Part The Second

It was some time ago, in fact my SlickEdit told me I had already a file with the title (I had forgotten, and fortunately tried the same title.  phew.), that "The End of the Road" appeared in these endeavors.  And the last offering made reference to the subject with the words,… Read full post »

JANUARY 23, 2015 8:57PM

Under My Thumb

Since I live in South Butt Plug, CT and grew up in western MA, I'm supposed to cleave to all things sports of Boston.  Problem is, I can't stand the B boys of Foxborough.  But DeflateGate does offer the opportunity to chime in a bit.  So, three points.

1)  Both B boys… Read full post »

JANUARY 22, 2015 3:34PM

Ain't No Science Like Old Science

What has become a recurring theme, or warning, in these endeavors:  it is foolish to view the future as pure extension of the past.  This is particularly true of anything science or engineering related.  As I have described more than once (and referenced the writings of those more famo… Read full post »

JANUARY 10, 2015 5:43PM

In Praise of Free Enterprise

As reported today:

Meanwhile, Transportation Minister Ignasius Jonan cracked down on five airlines Friday, temporarily suspending 61 flights because they were flying routes on days without permits. Earlier, all AirAsia flights from Surabaya to Singapore were stopped after it was discovered that the l… Read full post »
JANUARY 7, 2015 2:05PM

Fly Like an Eagle

Plummet like a turd.  Too strong?  May be.  Here's another attempt to explain the bond and interest rate problem.

Here's what the Right Wing used to say, this from the St. Louis Fed:

The cost of government borrowing is the "crowding out effect": Investment funds mobilized by the governm… Read full post »
JANUARY 6, 2015 1:09PM

Early Adapters

No, that's not a typo.  It's a pun.  Here's the punch line.

The plummeting of oil shares, with the attendant fall in the price of crude, distillates, and such should give the quants, micros, and macros pause.  Yet again.

The notion of an unfettered Rand-ian society rests on a basic assum… Read full post »

DECEMBER 30, 2014 2:09PM

The Winning Incentive

Today's NYT has a bumper crop of new data/facts surrounding the overarching themes of these endeavours.  So, with minimal gloat, here they are.

First, there continues to be the Rightwing cabal trying to pin The Great Recession on the Dems.  For the record, once again, Bush was President, Reh… Read full post »

DECEMBER 26, 2014 4:26PM

Marky Mark

No, not Wahlberg, although you should see "The Departed" if you've neglected it.  No, this musing is all about real books, and how to really highlight them.

Years ago, I grew tired of the huge Marks-A-Lot type with the felt tip which broke down soon enough.  I used the Pentel Data CheckerRead full post »

DECEMBER 26, 2014 3:04PM

Baby You Drive My Car

Once in a while, a random comment on a random post on a random thread on a random site strikes me as worthy of a post here in these endeavors.  What follows is such.

IBM's (and American corps generally) problem is that they've lost their marbles. Corps managements (the CxO class) are… Read full post »

DECEMBER 20, 2014 7:19PM

Kicked to the Curb

In some businesses, it makes sense to kick to geezers to the curb when downsizing.  Newspapers isn't one of them since it takes a bit of time listening to the liars to figure out what a lie sounds like, but they do that nevertheless.  This is Floyd Norris' last piece forRead full post »

DECEMBER 18, 2014 8:23PM

I Loves Olive Oyl

The problem with being dependent on data to make decisions:  what do you do when there is no data?  Well, punt.  Let's turn our attention to the oil patch.  Crude is quoted at $61/barrel (and change) today, and the blue-eyed Arabs in the Red states are whining poor mouth.  Al… Read full post »

DECEMBER 17, 2014 12:55PM

Putin on the Schitz [update 2]

Incentive.
Incentive.
Incentive.

As always, when there's a disruption in the process which created the time series the quant relies on to forecast future values, ignore the time series and look to the changed incentive proposal.  

By now all but the most self-absorbed Fox News watcher is aware that… Read full post »

DECEMBER 15, 2014 9:39PM

Ides of December Nudge

Another in the desultory reminders that you need to read this guy.

DECEMBER 14, 2014 4:46PM

Matter Over Mind

It's deep into sports season.  NFL is winding down to the last few games, Heisman is today along with the Army-Navy game, NBA is at the ¼ mark.  Johnny Manziel is described as a midget.  Adrian Peterson doesn't get off Scott free for beating his kid.  Baseball teams swap pl… Read full post »

DECEMBER 13, 2014 11:22AM

Crazy Schizo Quants

OK, so back in 2012 the Right Wingnuts were blaming Obambi for hiking gasoline prices (and, by necessity, petro price).  The lobbyer doesn't have a link to the advert, anymore, so here's the quote of note:

Since Obama became president, gas prices have nearly doubled. Tell Obama we can't afford h… Read full post »
DECEMBER 9, 2014 3:42PM

Widget Wonderland

Three semi-related posts went past my eyeballs today.  The thread which hangs them together is the value of value.  How do we figure it?

First, Blankenhorn takes on Amazon, among my favorite fubar companies.  As is often the case, the comment stream is as significant as the post. … Read full post »

DECEMBER 4, 2014 2:02PM

Prometheus Unbound [update]

The mainstream pundits, and the blogosphere too, continue to be perplexed by the refusal of open market interest rates to rise as they had hoped/wished/needed.  So, it falls to moi to yet again 'splain some more.

The notion of moolah as commodity rests on the base assumption of trade in real good… Read full post »

DECEMBER 3, 2014 8:42AM

A Rock and a Hard Place

From the first time I recall seeing him, I've been convinced of Chris Rock's cerebral approach to comedy.  Yes, he is foul mouthed, but the fundamental ideas are sound.  He is of course, a high school drop out.  Stay in school kids.

So, it comes as no surprise that he and I… Read full post »

DECEMBER 1, 2014 11:35AM

60 Seconds

That appears to be how much time and effort went into last night's "60 Minutes" piece on consumer credit card and ATM and such hacking.  If you accepted the statements made, then you believe:
1) retailers and banks are doing everything humanly possible
2) Eastern European hackers are the Smartest… Read full post »

NOVEMBER 25, 2014 4:18PM

Play to the Front Row

The pundit class has been wondering, in print, how it can be that we have increasing income/wealth inequality, but, if one believes the data, a recovery from The Great Recession and general growth.  

The answer, in a nutshell, is Apple.  Apple has made a living by ignoring the bottom 80% (or… Read full post »

NOVEMBER 19, 2014 8:49AM

A Dirty Little Secret [update]

The quants operate, oft times unknown to themselves, based on a dirty little secret.  "What might that be", called from the Peanut Gallery??  The notion that the risk-free, inflation-free interest rate is equal to homo economicus' "rate of time preference", i.e. homo econ will lend you one… Read full post »

NOVEMBER 18, 2014 12:22PM

Make It a Double

When I was growing up there were three categories of lushes:  the crude drank bourbon, the smooth drank scotch, and the sissies drank screwdrivers (so Mom couldn't tell; she still could, of course).  Seems to be still the case.

There's been a push, and some pushback, for artisinal bourbons.&… Read full post »

NOVEMBER 13, 2014 12:39PM

Booooooiiiiiiiiinnnnnnngg

It appears to be an article of faith, among the New Age capitalists such as Jobs/Cook of Apple fame, that one need only target the few, at a high price, to be success in business (without, of course, really trying).  In other words, as you learned in Econ. 101, demand is… Read full post »

NOVEMBER 12, 2014 7:49PM

What Are The Odds?

The initial title was going to be something like, "Marty McFly is Grounded", since the subject is Matt Martoma, and yes, it's a bit of a stretch for an allusive pun.

Mathew Martoma, a former portfolio manager at billionaire Steven A. Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors LP hedge fund, on Wednesday lost… Read full post »
NOVEMBER 7, 2014 1:56PM

Just A Taste

One of the continuing themes of these endeavors is that quant isn't always the best guide to the future; moreover, the data which is ground, finely, through the mill stones isn't always understood for what it is.  This is particularly vexing for the macros in the crowd.  The micro folks ten… Read full post »