Politically: “Evidence now available from various sources, including recently declassified U.S. State Department documents, shows that the Taliban regime led by Mullah Mohammad Omar imposed strict isolation on Osama bin Laden after 1998 to prevent him from carrying out any plots against the United States.” (Inter Press Service {IPS} 2/11/10)

US officials called the Afghanistan oil and gas pipeline project a “fabulous opportunity” with the “prospect of circumventing Iran, which offered another route for the pipeline.” (Boston Globe, 9/20/01) Clinton made several efforts to give better international relations to the Taliban in exchange for extradition of Osama bin Laden. There were two major problems. The Jewish Bible, the Christian Bible and the Koran all include rules regarding the treatment of outsiders and provisions for places of refuge. In addition, where there were no motels for travelers there were tribal laws regarding the treatment of strangers. Most readers will remember the story of the wounded Special Forces soldier who crawled into an Afghan village as a last resort. Because of religion and tribal custom, the villagers took him in, treated his wounds and protected him. If they had come upon him outside the village they would likely have killed him or turned him over to the Taliban.

Secretary of State Christopher wrote to the Taliban in 1996 that “we wish to work with you to expel all terrorists and those who support terrorism.” This was ten years after the Reagan administration had been found guilty of international terrorism by the International Court of Justice. Taliban responded that they did not support terrorism and would not provide refuge to Osama. March 1997, the US was told that expulsion of Bin Laden was not a solution. Dec. 1997, the US was assured that Osama was being kept under restriction and would not be allowed to engage in anti-US activities, repeated March 1999. “Former Taliban Foreign Minister Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil told IPS in an interview that the regime ‘put bin Laden in Kandahar to control him better.’ Kandahar remained the Taliban political headquarters after the organization's seizure of power in 1996.” (IPS 2/11/10)

Taliban said that expelling Osama would violate Taliban rules of hospitality and would result in the downfall of Taliban. 1998 Taliban said that Osama had to be tried by the Taliban since Afghanistan had no extradition treaty. The US said it would not be bound by the panel’s decision but hoped it would lead to extradition. Clinton warned that Taliban would be held responsible for further terrorist acts by Osama. July, 2000 Taliban declared that Osama had not been convicted and the Taliban considered him innocent. However, Taliban would restrict his activities. (US Department of State, 1/30/04)

1998, Julie Sirrs, military analyst for the Defense Intelligence Agency, made an undercover trip to Afghanistan and reported that the Taliban was financed by bin Laden and the narcotics trade. Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Massoud told her that he had evidence that Unocal provided money that helped the Taliban capture Kabul. (ABC News 2/16/02); (New York Observer 3/11/04)

1998, the US fired missiles at al-Qaeda training camps. The important leaders had left, perhaps because the US had to warn Pakistan military that missiles would be launched. India and Pakistan were skirmishing and if Pakistan believed the missiles were from India they would likely retaliate with their own strikes. Elements of the Pakistan military supported the Taliban and might have warned them or al-Qaeda. The strikes prompted reclusive Taliban leader Mullah Omar to ask for confidential talks with the US. “The August 1998 U.S. cruise missile strikes against training camps in Afghanistan run by bin Laden in retaliation for the bombings of two U.S. Embassies in East Africa on Aug. 7, 1998 appears to have had a dramatic impact on Mullah Omar and the Taliban regime's policy toward bin Laden.” (IPS 2/11/10)

“On Feb. 10, 1999, the Taliban sent a group of 10 officers to replace bin Laden's own bodyguards, touching off an exchange of gunfire, according to a New York Times story of Mar. 4, 1999. Three days later, bodyguards working for Taliban intelligence and the Foreign Affairs Ministry personnel took control of bin Laden's compound near Kandahar and took away his satellite telephone, according to the U.S. and Taliban sources cited by the Times.” (IPS 2/11/10) An e-mail from two leading Arab jihadists in Afghanistan to bin Laden in July 1999, later found on a laptop previously belonging to al Qaeda and purchased by the Wall Street Journal, referred to “problems between you and the Leader of the Faithful”(Omar) as a “crisis.” The e-mail, published in The Atlantic (9/04) said, “Talk about closing down the camps has spread.” The message suggested that the Taliban might expel them from Afghanistan.

1999, Clinton froze Taliban’s US assets. (CNN 7/6/99) The US and Russia planned an attack to destroy al-Qaida. Again, Iran would have been the natural route and no other Central Asian country would permit an attack from its territory. (Washington Post 12/19/00) 

At least twice before 9/11 Bush repeated Clinton’s warning to the Taliban that the US would hold Taliban responsible for an al Qaeda attack. (Washington Post 1/20/02) March 2001, a Taliban envoy offered to turn over bin Laden to a third country. A CIA official later said, “Ours was, ‘Give up bin Laden.’ They were saying, ‘Do something to help us give him up.’ I have no doubts they wanted to get rid of him.” The envoy also proposed holding bin Laden long enough for the US to locate and destroy him. (Village Voice 6/6/01) Offers regarding bin Laden continued until 9/11. (Washington Post 10/29/01)  Taliban offered to surrender bin laden after 9/11 “if proof was offered of his involvement in the 9/11 attacks.”(The Guantanamo Files, Andy Worthington, Pluto Press, London, 2007)

July, 2001, Three former US officials met with Pakistani and Russian intelligence officers to discuss Afghanistan. Pakistan’s ISI relayed the information to the Taliban. Lee Coldren, former State Department expert on South Asia later said, “I think there was some discussion of the fact that the United States was so disgusted with the Taliban that they might be considering some military action.” (Guardian 9/26/01) Former Pakistani Foreign Secretary Niaz Naik, who was present at the meeting stated that the US military planned to overthrow the Taliban “before the snows started falling in Afghanistan, by the middle of October at the latest.” Naik also reported, “It was doubtful that Washington would drop its plan even if bin Laden were to be surrendered immediately by the Taliban.” (BBC 9/18/01)

August 2001, Christina Rocca, Director of Asian Affairs at the State Department, secretly met the Taliban ambassador in Islamabad to secure a pipeline deal. Rocca was previously in charge of contacts with Islamic guerrilla groups at the CIA, and oversaw the delivery of Stinger missiles to Afghan mujaheddin in the 1980s.( Irish Times 11/19/2001); (Salon 2/8/02) US embassy officials in Islamabad held secret talks with Taliban security chief Hameed Rasoli. (Washington Post 10/29/01) Senior Taliban political leadership met in Pakistan, November 2002 and agreed to “join the political process” in Afghanistan if they were not arrested upon return. (Paper published by the Center on International Cooperation at New York University. (2/7/11) Bush and Karzai rejected the proposal believing the Taliban had been defeated.

Conclusion: Iran could have been a valuable ally in transporting the oil from the Caspian area and in a war on Afghanistan if that had been necessary. Instead, relations have gotten worse since Bush named them as part of an “Axis of Evil.” Rapprochement is badly needed rather than continued threats of a stick. Iran is aware that Bush did not attack North Korea that had WMD and US troops on its border but Iraq that had neither. Like Iran, Iraq had oil. 

Clinton failed to capture or kill Osama and Bush didn’t try, although he had armed drones that could find and track Osama until he could be killed with little collateral damage. (Washington Post 1/20/02) However, it seems that neither the capture nor the death of Osama would have prevented 9/11 as the plans were made in Germany and no Afghans were involved in the attack. If, in addition to warning the Taliban of retaliation, Bush had warned US defense forces, the State Department, the FAA, the airlines, first responders and citizens 9/11 might have been prevented.

It seems likely that the Taliban would have permitted US Special Forces to destroy al-Qaida if the Taliban were not attacked. 

Taliban has little experience in diplomacy but the stick has not worked. Perhaps it is not too late for the carrot. Taliban consists largely of Pashtuns, the dominant tribe in Afghanistan. Defeating them will be difficult because they wish to die in Afghanistan and few foreigners have the same desire. 

No matter how difficult negotiations may be, no legitimate or lasting government can be formed in Afghanistan without including the Pashtuns who comprise half the population. Improving humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan will require time, patience, a major internal effort and international assistance. Even then, keep your fingers crossed.