I still don't believe that Sarah Palin is going to be withdrawn as a VP candidate, but the hum, post-Couric, is getting louder. There's yesterday's National Review column calling for her to resign. There's the turn of the mainstream media against her -- even Anderson Cooper and Wolf Blitzer were joking bitterly about her inaccessibility last night, post-debate. And now Ed Shultz says the McCain camp is calling Palin's debate practice "disastrous," the governor herself "clueless," and wondering aloud "What are we going to do?" Over at The American Conservative, riffing from that, Daniel Larison predicts that the Palin choice will drive McCain to a Dole-like loss while also giving a nod to the impossibility of Palin being withdrawn now:
The answer, according to the Rules of the Republican Party, is yes. If Palin decided to drop out right now, the chairman of the Republican Party (Mike Duncan) could call a meeting in a city of his choice, five days from now, to nominate a new candidate. Let me introduce you to my friend, Rule. No. 9:
The committee is comprised of an elected National Committeeman and National Committeewoman from each state. These folks, by the way, were elected at the 2008 convention and will serve until the 2009 convention. So it's a whole new crop of people than those who, ostensibly, led the pack into the Republican National Convention. They would then vote, some according to rules of their states but all under the auspices of the national committee, and a majority would be required to support a new candidate going forward.
What's the point of all of this? It's this: selecting a new running mate right now would be a massive organizational headache for the McCain campaign and the Republican party overall. It would also be, I believe, nearly impossible for McCain to propose Joe Lieberman as a running mate because he still has to get his choice approved by the party as a whole. And this isn't the rank-and-file party that has to vote -- it's the politically charged leaders of the party, the ones who didn't go to Minneapolis for the hookers but for the platform. These are the true-believers and the back-room wheeler-dealers. No way does Lieberman pass muster.
To pick someone new, McCain would have to lose at least five days of campaigning -- that's an eighth of the remaining time, if he announced her withdrawal today. He'd lose huge amounts of money, too: consider the amount of campaign signage that's been printed, the commercials that have already been bought, the fundraisers already lined up; consider, too, that no one wants to invest in uncertain times. Even if it might be a head-clearing, game-changing move at this point for McCain to switch running mates, the downside would be losing the election he seems to want more than anything. (Of course, the downside to sticking with her may be the exact same thing).
The weird thing is, the recent campaign suspension would have been the perfect time to do all of this. The campaign had a moment in which to retool all of its forward-going ads and strategies; it had an event big enough to pull Palin from the spotlight; and it had a perfect platform for McCain to explain his decision directly to millions of Americans at the debate. Since they didn't take that opportunity, I'm guessing they're not going to.
There's one final reason to think that McCain won't switch, and it's this: he can't declare that he changed his mind because he discovered his judgment was bad, so he'd have to fall back on a tried-and-true resignation plan. Sarah Palin would have to say she's quitting the campaign of her own volition, and she'd have to give a reason -- something big enough to make it impossible for her to continue. Maybe it could be concern for her family, but that's unlikely, since she's been a family-up-front governor for years. Whatever excuse she might give, the question would have to next shift to her ability to continue as Alaska's governor -- a battle I can't imagine she wants to take up at this point without the power of the national committee behind her. She's shown no sign of the kind of patriotic self-awareness that might make a candidate willing to sacrifice reputation for the good of the party or the country -- if anything, she's shown again and again a willingness to repeat proven lies as truth, to manufacture her own reality. I can't see her stepping aside easily or lightly, particularly if she knows it will mean the end of her political career.
So I think we're as stuck with her as he is. McCain-Palin '08, my friends. As a Democrat, I'm finally on board. We always knew she was someone's worst nightmare -- but we're seeing, now, that she's more theirs than ours. Congrats, GOP.
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Mary Ann Sorrentino
O'Really?
Harry Ramble
Cassandra Woolf
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Kathy Riordan
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Comments
This part:
The weird thing is, the recent campaign suspension would have been the perfect time to do all of this. The campaign had a moment in which to retool all of its forward-going ads and strategies; it had an event big enough to pull Palin from the spotlight; and it had a perfect platform for McCain to explain his decision directly to millions of Americans at the debate. Since they didn't take that opportunity, I'm guessing they're not going to.
I wonder if they weren't seriously considering it?
Leigh, I wonder a bit, too -- I'd wonder more if I knew how much of the Couric interview they saw in advance.
I think you're right: We're stuck with her. I just can't think of who they could possibly replace her with who wouldn't royally piss off the religious right. Certainly not Lieberman, as you said, and I don't see them going with Romney. Maybe Huckabee? But I think it would have to be someone known -- another out of left field would be lethal for him, I'd think.
I do have a creeping (and hopefully irrational) fear that expectations are SO unbelievably low for Palin right now that she's going to end up getting good marks in the debates if she can so much as string a single coherent sentence together. Whereas if Biden makes one of his "FDR went on television after the big crash" remarks he'll be slaughtered.
I think the other criterion for a McCain replacement at this point would be someone who's willing to take a losing slot -- and in high-level politics, I can't imagine who he'd find.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDZiMDhjYTU1NmI5Y2MwZjg2MWNiMWMyYTUxZDkwNTE=#more
See my piece, if I may be so humble, about the lack of commentary and outrage in re her ABSENCE at the debate last night.
http://open.salon.com/content.php?cid=23108
Thank God she is now their nightmare. She literally was mine and the all the rest of ours for awhile there. Thank you for this.
More of the same from and best from Saturn Smith!
Turning my computer OFF now. Thank you, again.
As far as debate & expectations, I don't know that it matters that much if expectations are low. Keep in mind that the primary audience that makes a difference is the low-information, undecided voter. And while she may be "just one of the gals" or whatever, she will not have a teleprompter available and I think her repeating the same non-sequitur talking points ad nauseum and being all snarky and mean will not play well.
Expectations game, lps... yeah, I can't imagine she'll be more together than she was on Couric, but I could be wrong. Maybe she's been saving her A game? (ha)
Removal of a VP later would require Senate confirmation, which would, after this campaign, be an even stiffer vetting process than usual (though arguably one that Lieberman would be more likely to survive). So I'm not too worried about that option being exercised, either.
I was so shocked by this choice when it was first announced and when information about her background started surfacing, that I thought almost immediately this is McCain's “hail Mary pass”. He knew he was in bad shape and making this decision, I thought, was a sink-or-swim attempt at stealing Obama's thunder that would ensue during the week following the Democratic Convention. I expected a lot of commentary and talk about Obama and the Dems during that week, but once Palin appeared on the scene, Obama and the Dems virtually disappeared from the news cycles. But it seems McCain had to know that once he announced, and she became his running mate, that he would be stuck with her, no matter what.
I don't think there is a winning scenario for the Republican Party where Palin is concerned, but I still don't know if she's the death of his campaign, at least if the polls are anywhere near accurate. I have learned to never underestimate the stupidity of much of the American public. And that makes her presence all the more scary. But it would be interesting to see how it woud fly if she left the campaign by whatever means it might occur.
rated
And never underestimating the thinking of the voters is, sadly, an excellent strategy.
I think the GOP is stuck with Palin. And I think the "campaign suspension" was a ploy to see if they could finagle a change in the date for the October 2 debate. A ploy that pretty much failed.
Going into the debate, I think that Palin has kind of boxed her into a corner with the "pit bull" persona. No one likes to see a man go hard on a woman in a debate setting, unless the woman has previously staked herself out as being "tough" -- then it becomes more acceptable to take the gloves off and be harsh with her. Sad fact I know all too well from my lawyering days. Biden will no doubt take the tactic of actually building her up and then ripping out the rug from her repeatedly. "Governor Palin is a smart woman, she knows that x, y, and z are true, and yet, she insists that the right response is policy a, which is simply the wrong approach." or "Governor Palin surely knows that McCain's record on this is y. And that's simply not good enough."
The debate is going to be interesting.
There's a really fascinating book by Jeff Greenfield called The People's Choice from the 90s about a truly nightmarish scenario, where the president-elect dies between the election and the certification of the electors, leaving the party with a VP candidate that they hate. Then it was modeled after the first Bush and Quayle; now it's even scarier.
I think the "one more reason" is the chief reason. If McCain changes his mind he'll not only be admitting that his choice was wrong, but also that his whole campaign strategy was a cynical calculation.
Hah. All this buzz about exciting the base. It wasn't the base they needed to convince-it was the independent voters who, we're discovering, aren't as dim as mcCain gambled they were.
My only hope is that the American voters realize what a horrendous choice McCain has made in picking a successor, and that her possibility of accession to the Presidency is much greater than that of the average Veep. As much as I would like to see this dim bulb return to Alaska for the sake of America, I'll hold out hope that stays on, because she's great for the Democrats.
And Rob, yeah, I really think the chances are low -- particularly since it's still only being discussed in partisan media sources, both right and left. The day that Brian Williams starts talking about it (or even Blitzer), I'll think they're actually worried.
I've been thinking that the McCain campaign is partly causing this problem. She seems very self-conscious and concerned about sticking to the talking points that they've coached her on. And to purposefully block her from interacting with the media, more pressure builds on her each time she actually does. She never gets a chance to gain some footing or confidence because of the very restrictive way they control access to her - that can't be good for her confidence. Having watched some of the footage of her debates for the governor race, she did some across better and less concerned with whether every word out of her mouth was part of the script. In that last bit of the bailout interview segment, she was looking down at notes (I assumed), clearly frazzled and worried about sticking to the orders of the campaign, nowhere near as at ease as she was in the governor debate.
She will undoubtedly make verbal gaffes if given more freedom, but those usually make for less concern than the impression she's giving now as someone completely unaware of what's going on. And, it will give her more experience and confidence in knowing how to deal with the media.
But, like you said, she's no longer the Democrat's problem. I would almost actually cheer for her to do better if it weren't for how brazenly and cheaply she's cut into Obama. Especially when she's living in a bigger glass house than he is.
Leigh, I wonder a bit, too -- I'd wonder more if I knew how much of the Couric interview they saw in advance.
They were there when it happened, Saturn. Her handlers were on set, standing to one side, watching the nightmare unfold. They knew instantly how bad this was.
Rumor has it that they're working hard to pull Bristol's wedding together in advance of Nov., in a desperate and cynical attempt to deflect criticism of Palin.
I won't be the least surprised if something happens this week that prevents Palin from debating Biden. That may be their last hope.
Nice post, but exactly where were you before Palin? With McCain? Your remark begs the question. Please elucidate. Thanks
But I'd say she's stuck with the debate. Ducking it would be tacit admission by the Palin/McCain campaign that they expected Biden to eat her lunch.
Gregory, I meant that before, I thought she could be a damaging addition to the Republican ticket -- but now I realize the damage she's causing is mostly internal. As a Democrat, I can finally cheer for this decision instead of dreading it. Thanks, John McCain.
Y, I think in general you're right that more practice, less script would make anyone a more relaxed speaker, but the damage she could do to the campaign in those first days/weeks of getting on her public speaking feet is apparently more than they're willing to risk.
In the unlikely event that he drops Palin, might they ask Ron Paul as he has garnered some rural votes they must covet? (The McCain camp actually called Paul to feel him out about an endorsement, and he told them to take a hike.) Votes are votes.
In this crazy election, anything can happen.
As for Sarah Palin….. I think something will keep her from debating Thursday night and remaining on the GOP ticket. Senator McCain has sold his total being to the devil and will doing anything to win November 4th.
As for Sarah Palin….. I think something will keep her from debating Thursday night and remaining on the GOP ticket. Senator McCain has sold his total being to the devil and will doing anything to win November 4th.
As for Sarah Palin….. I think something will keep her from debating Thursday night and remaining on the GOP ticket. Senator McCain has sold his total being to the devil and will doing anything to win November 4th.
As for managing expectations, I think that we need to raise expectations for Palin's debate performance. I recently posted on here about why our brains are fooled by lowered expectations, but the opposite is true as well: if we expect a lot and then are disappointed, our brains perceive that as extra special terrible. It would be great if posts like Marple Fank's reminding us of how good Palin can be as a debater were repeated over and over again.... [Sorry, I would have put links in here but I can't seem to figure out how to do so in comments]
According to a September 25 article in the Des Moines Register absentee ballots have already been printed and are ready for distribution:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/
article?AID=/20080925/NEWS10/809250389
So in some cases even were Palin replaced people would still be "voting" for her, because her name would be on the ballot.
Chief Etahoben, it does seem a little nightmarish right now, doesn't it? I can only hope he ends up a presidential loser, and not that we, like Frances says and I agree, suffer for the bad judgment.
And oooh, mishima, you have woken the real political dork in me with that scenario. Very good point! I think it varies state by state about how electors are contracted after voting -- so in some states, if the majority voted on a McCain/Palin ticket, they'd have to vote for Palin if that was the name on the ballot, while in others they could switch to vote for the replacement. (I think some elector did this in 1992, switched Bill Clinton and Al Gore's name because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for BC, but I can't remember the state).
Unless he works with earmuffs and opaque goggles, he must know that she's doing a "Perils of Pauline" imitation, hanging from the precipice by a few fingers. He also knows his own creds are now
inextricably linked to her, so he must see his Skyhawk going down again, at least in his dreams. All he can do is kneel and pray with her, the way Kissinger did with Nixon, that the debate next week won't be a political China Syndrome.
We all know how Nixon's prayers were answered.
John Leonard ( mother of bride polishing the shotgun) and Michael Fox ( McCain most likely to dump Palin if she gains weight) get my vote for most trenchant comments.
WOOF
Here's a terrifying insight from small town Ohio. I drove through my southeastern Ohio hometown today reading the political signs. Many local elections featuring candidates from both parties. Time and time again I saw yards filled with Democrat's signs, but centered around a McCain / Palin sign. I counted 32 McC/P. It wasn't until I was leaving that I saw the one and only Obama sign, and that was in an open field along a state route. Certainly I didn't cover every street in every neighborhood, but I was in such a variety that I would have predicted a vastly different ratio than 32:1.
And later, a friend related that a mutual aquaintance who is an out lesbian said she was voting for Palin because she's a woman, even though it would be the first time she hadn't voted Democrat. Ever.
I've been chortling about Palin's ineptitude, but the smile is fading from my lips as I realize that we may be about to see a national ineptitude on a scale that amazes the smugness right out of many of us. Please, please let me be wrong!
Stonecutter, your comment was perfect. Someone else was complimenting Liz by saying he wished he could rate comments. I give you a thumbs up.
Not sure I'd like to live in that neighborhood...