Orbital Matters

Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith
Birthday
April 06
Title
Ms.
Company
The Solar System
Bio
Everything posted here, and more random thoughts, are also posted at my web site: http://kepkanation.com.

Editor’s Pick
MARCH 25, 2009 3:24AM

An Extraordinary Time

Rate: 10 Flag

In their testimony today before the House Committee on Financial Services, both Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner made the same point: If the government had had the power in September to do more, it could have saved us all the AIG mess of the past few months.  Bernanke (emphasis mine):

We at the Federal Reserve, working closely with the Treasury, made our decision to lend  to AIG on September 16 of last year.  It was an extraordinary time.  Global financial markets were experiencing unprecedented strains and a worldwide loss of confidence.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been placed into conservatorship only two weeks earlier, and Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy the day before.  We were very concerned about a number of other major  firms that were under intense stress.

The decision by the Federal Reserve on September 16, 2008, with the full support of the Treasury, to lend up to $85 billion to AIG should be viewed with this background in mind.  At that time, no federal entity could provide capital to stabilize AIG and no federal or state entity outside of a bankruptcy court could wind down AIG.  Unfortunately, federal bankruptcy laws do not sufficiently protect the public’s strong interest in ensuring the orderly resolution of nondepository financial institutions when a failure would pose substantial systemic risks, which is why I have called on the Congress to develop new emergency resolution procedures. 

Now we come to a big-picture American Democracy question: Do extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures?  And if so, how do you go back to regular measures during regular times?

The power that Bernanke is endorsing and Geithner is asking for is actually enormous.  It allows the Treasury Secretary to take over non-depository financial institutions: hedge funds, investment firms, insurance giants who've been dabbling in the markets, maybe credit card companies, and possibly major auto companies who have attached financing wings.  He'll have to consult the president and take advice from the Fed board, but at this point, the "independent" Fed is pretty much betrothed to and smitten by the Treasury, so don't expect a big fight there (particularly because without this power, who has the authority to infuse a company with money to save it from bankruptcy?  That's right -- Big Ben).

I am in favor of them having this power at this moment.  In fact, I would've been in favor of someone having this power when AIG went down, during that "extraordinary time."  I feel less confident, though, thinking of this power being available to any Treasury at any time.  I'm also bothered by the idea that it might be necessary in the future, that the possibility of being artfully wound down by the Treasury will prove itself to be such a kind, clean option that the number of companies who are too big to fail will increase in the next few years instead of declining.

By this, I mean that the possibility exists that the government is creating an insurance policy for badly behaving financial institutions -- well, not for the institutions themselves, because I assume a Treasury take-down would be painful, and would at the least involve installation of new management and new priorities and, most likely, since it was a huge focus on the Hill today, strict compensation limits.  No, it seems like this could encourage investment in risky firms by institutionalizing the current bailout scheme.  What I mean is this: if company AIH made a whole bunch of bad deals, and you, as head of J.Q. Morgan, knew it, you'd be less likely to make any deals with them -- unless you knew that the Treasury would never let that company go bankrupt.  It might take it apart, sure, but you'd be protected under that extraordinary scenario.  So why not gamble?

Essentially, I see this authority as setting up an FDIC-like guarantee for non-depository (or what I like to think of as "UnBank Banks") organizations.  And if that's the way it's going to be, there must be rules.

The FDIC has the authority right now to shut down depository institutions.  This is granted through an exchange: banks pay for that protection, through premiums/fees, and also through increased transparency and regulation.  Those three things would be a fantastic overhaul for the financial system, if the Treasury would demand them from the institutions.

I'm in favor of this package of regulations, as I've said before.  But we should have learned by now that expanding powers should also require expanded monitoring and responsibility.  I hope this is what we'll see in the finished plan, when it gets to Congress, or what we'll see in the continuing testimony on Thursday.

Programming note: I'm traveling this week, so there will be a delay in my response -- in fact I'm able to read comments as they come in, but can't log in to reply on the go (no java capability, I guess?).  So bear with me; I'm here, I'm reading, I'll get back to anyone who comments (and catch up on the last two) as soon as I can.
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good post. thanks for helping me make sense of this mess.

i'm still trying to absorb it all and make sense of the various opinions i'm seeing here. not sure if i'm in favor or not at this point but leaning toward in favor.
It's fascinating to see the details of our destruction, the rationales that will be laughed at and derided later, acting as if we are a people of extraordinary competence to be allowed extraordinary power. Hell, we're walking around blind without a cane!

In the end, the decisions on the way they want to re-arrange the deck chairs on the U.S. Titanic are meaningless (they seem meaningful standing on the deck, they lose meaning when you pull back to look at the ship). This much I can tell you: were anyone to make any sort of true reform, he'd be roasted alive (I know you probably disagree with that). Everything else is just a shell game for pundits and public consumption.
I am not at all thrilled by this increase in power, and the ability of the federal government to push itself so overtly into the private sector. The whole idea of an institution being too big to fail is frightening in the extreme, and just as was done (for different reasons) decades ago with Standard Oil, and later with AT&T, there is at least a partial solution to this kind of Catch 22: Break the companies up. And then enforce regulations.

Once you give the government extraordinary powers, the government will be loathe to give those powers up. I have little confidence that Congress will put any concrete status quo ante measures of that sort into the final bill.
Great job once again President Obama, ahem, I mean Saturn.
There is so much depth to this mess and so many layers I just don't think people get it. So many questions about AIG when the real questions that Big Boy Ben needs to answer is where did all of the first trillion dollar bail out go? Where is the outrage in total? AIG is one corporation. As President Obama said last night (and I only half agree but for consumer lending purposes he needed to say it) we can't feel like every financial organization is like AIG. Consumer confidence and locked down credit markets are our two biggest culprits right now. I love Chuck Todd and feel he is one of the best correspondents out there, but I felt his question about what can average Americans be asked to sacrifice right now was a bit insane. What MORE can we sacrifice? How many members of OS have lost their jobs? Taken pay cuts? Paid out the rectum for Health Care benefits that are sub-par? Chuck should have put the caveat of what more can wealthy, upper crust Americans and bandit like House Flippers sacrifice for this country?
I think that this power ought to be very time limited. very time limited. first, it is potentially dictatorial in character. that is not a good idea.
second, your point about moral hazard is well taken. we got into this mess doing things like this; that does not seem to be the way to get out,beyond a very time limited and credible guarantee that there is no more heads i win tails you lose gambling with public money.
third, i especially think procopius makes a point that concentration is the issue that is not being addressed. there are plenty of people who are smart enough to do this stuff; as it is, we keep putting more and more power in the hands of a smaller number of people. bad idea. good job as usual.
I think you make a nice distinction - we favor control when "our guys" are in charge but handing that power over to whomever is in that role in the future is too damn scary. I wonder if they can put sunset provisions in some of these changes? I realize those don't always work - they can get renewed ad infinitum - and I don't know if it makes sense, but just an idea.
I agree with the FDIC insurance fund approach. Essentially, if you want to play with risky stuff and create a systemic risk negative externality, THEN you have to take out insurance just like anyone who wants to get out on the road and drive a car. A specific set of rules laid out up front will determine what triggers a notional "default" (collateral call that cannot be adequately met in X time period) event such that the insurance authority takes over. In this way, financial institutions "hedge" downside risk proactively. You want to avoid moral hazard by making the call to action for the regulatory action to be at a threshold higher than would represent any remote creation of system risk but not so high as to kill financial innovation. I think figuring out where that is will be the challenge. You don't want it to be too proscriptive because you can't foresee all the new fangled stuff that will come up in the future. I think many of FDR's policies were expansive, but they did help get us out of the age of constant and regular bank panics that were plaguing the US every 2-5 years in the latter half of the 18000s and early 1900s. Any such structure would be ideal.

I am fairly concerned that the meme on the right at the moment is that "Obama is dangerous." This was the same type of thinking that inspired Prescott Bush to try to lead a coup (yes, it wasn't Rev. Wright but Bush's own grandfather who was the real insurgent).
This idea that banks can't be competitive and regulated is pure horse hockey. Canada has much more regulation than American banks and look at Bloomberg's most recent top 10 banks in North America--four of them are Canadian. Canadian banks rank as the second most stable in the world, next to Switzerland. Yes, the U.S. ranks as the most competitive, but how long is that going to last? You can't be competitive if people don't trust your system.
There are so many diverse view points on this... still, I have to consider that if Roubini thinks Geithner's plan will work, then it must have some merit.

After all, Roubini was one of the few to forsee these events-- and say so publicly.

Here's a link...
Cap'n, the sad thing is, it seems likely only to get more complex. It's hard for me to know which side I land on from day to day, as much as things change right now.

I do disagree, Harry, but perhaps not as strenuously as you'd think. There's certainly increasing danger in being a real reformer these days.

Procopius, you've summarized my fear -- the giving back is always the hard part. I agree with you and Don, that concentrating more power isn't a good long-term solution in terms of civil rights -- but right now it could be a necessary move to protect more people from massive economic trouble.

Blue, you're certainly right that there are more questions than answers right now -- more questions than are being asked. And Chuck Todd... I give up on Chuck Todd.

Silkstone, I like the sunset idea, or would even like a triggering mechanism -- like, the power doesn't exist unless X, Y, and Z metrics have been passed by the non-bank.

Skewz, I'm on board with the FDIC type approach, or the market-with-clearinghouse type approach that Geithner's also been talking about, for the reasons you state. More regulation and clarity would be particularly helpful with this complex, risky deals.

Great point, Juliet -- that argument about regulation reducing competition is only valid when banks are solvent, so... doesn't seem relevant now.

I admit, ktm, I cheered to hear Roubini supporting the plan (though his argument seems to be that it's a positive step on the path to nationalization -- which I'm not yet sure is the goal, though it seems plausible). Thanks for the link!