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Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith
Birthday
April 06
Title
Ms.
Company
The Solar System
Bio
Everything posted here, and more random thoughts, are also posted at my web site: http://kepkanation.com.

Editor’s Pick
MARCH 25, 2009 11:28PM

The Clinton Trap

Rate: 20 Flag

Nineteen ninety-three was a bad year to be a Democrat.

Bill Clinton had won not just the White House in 1992, but had met up in Washington with a Democratic Congress (both houses).  He had big plans, having just completed a campaign that was based around the idea of putting people first -- in fact, he and his running mate had published a book, Putting People First, that held their economic plans for the future.  Clinton unveiled the economic plan in June of 1992:

"My strategy puts people first by investing more than $50 billion dollars each year over the next four years to put America back to work -- the most dramatic economic growth program since World War II," Clinton said.

"These investments will create millions of high-wage jobs and provide tax relief to working families," he added.

You may remember how this story ends: the budget that Clinton was able to pass in 1993 was not the happy-go-lucky investments budget he had proposed on the campaign trail, but one that placed an emphasis on deficit reduction over investment, advocated by his Secretary of the Treasury, Lloyd Bentsen (turns out you're no Jack Kennedy either, Mr. Secretary).  In addition, Clinton was thwarted by budget caps that the majority party Democrats were unwilling to raise, so that his proposed budget, calling for $30 billion in new investments, instead passed the House -- the Democrat-controlled House -- with an approved $1 billion.  Eventually, the bill passed the Senate when Al Gore cast the tie-breaking vote.

The Democrats who voted for this did it out of habit formed in the 1980s, when one had to be a "budget hawk," willing to go to war over the deficit, to get elected.  They fought Clinton to save their own jobs, and ended up looking like the least powerful party in the country.  Not even while in power could they accomplish their stated goals; not even a president with a friendly Congress could get people put first.  Clinton was trapped -- he couldn't make good on his campaign promises.

If 1993 was a bad year to be a Democrat, then 1994 was way, way worse.  Remember the Contract With America?  I still have nightmares.

So why are we seeing this political history repeat itself?  Why is President Obama having to fight to get his budget bill passed through a Democratic Senate and House?

My guess is fear: Fear, from Evan Bayh's "centrist" Democrats, that the coming campaigns will be too difficult if they have to go home and fight charges that they've added billions or trillions or whatever made-up number people can put in TV ads to "the debts of our grandchildren."  I understand fighting those ads is an uphill battle, but I don't understand why we aren't attacking this issue head on.  I don't understand why more party leaders aren't out front saying, no, the investments in the budget aren't just spending for spending's sake, they aren't worthless debts that will burden our children and grandchildren, they are instead the steps we must take to make sure that there's still a solvent, sophisticated country around for those children and grandchildren to enjoy.

When you cut investments in education, you reduce the knowledge base of the economy and the likelihood of innovation.  When you cut investments in health care, you reduce not just the health of the populace -- which is pretty important if we want to tell our grandchildren anything -- but also the size, power, and durability of the workforce, which hurts economic growth (and this is with no mention of the burden that health care costs place on economic growth overall).  When you cut investments in energy innovation aimed at reducing climate change, well, you're passing on a cost to our children and grandchildren that can't even be quantified in dollars.  You are literally taking the world away from them.

If Democrats are dealing down on the budget because of election concerns, I'd like to suggest we take $10,000 from TALF or TARP or CRAP or whatever and pay some college kids to march outside of the Senate and House office buildings with Remember Newt! placards.  Voting out of deficit fears is the same as saying the conservatives are right and have been right all along; it doesn't help anyone in the next election, least of all your constituents.

Sidenote: the NYTimes piece on the president's meeting today with the Democratic Caucus lists the menu as vegetable soup, macaroni and cheese, finger sandwiches, and sugar-free Jell-O.  I have nothing against any of these foods, but I must wonder: Was the meeting held in a nursing home cafeteria?

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I think Obama will ram this fucking budget through one way or another.
I decided to truast Obama. With a few hiccups (e.g. appointments) he still has my turst. Today more than ever.

Why can't our elected representatives give our elected- overwhelmingly-with-a-mandate President the benefit of the doubt just once, and act in OUR best interests, not theirs.

I only hope the naysayers and NO-voters get held accoutnable next time. Because I believe in what I have seen so far. Naive? Maybe. I don't think so.
Is there any amount of money that you would consider to be too much?

And, is your reference to cutting spending on education just a throw-in line? I have not noticed the Feds cutting spending there. All that is normally debated is how much to increase it each year.

Also, I know your suggestion of using taxpayer money to hire people to support Democrats is not serious but it does play to the accusation that the purpose of much government spending is to create a class of voters dependent on dole-outs from the government. Wouldn't you rather have a citizenry made up of self-sufficient people?
Jimmymac, yeah, a budget will get passed, but it already seems like it will be a budget that doesn't match with the priorities Obama laid out in the campaign.

Kelly, I'm with you; I don't know why his win doesn't mean more. But I guess people like Bayh are representing states that were on the edge, so they're trying to stay much closer to the middle.

Is there a number that would be too much for me, McGarett? Sure: $1 over whatever it would take to fully fund social programs in a way that creates a supportive, though not overwhelming, system to help people secure lives free from poverty, poor health, limited education, and a dangerously changing climate. Can I give you a number on that? Not right now.

And on education: please note that this same Congress cut more than $5 billion -- BILLION -- in proposed spending on education from the stimulus plan. I don't think they treat education as the sacred cow that it has been previously.

Would I rather have a society made up of self-sufficient people? That depends: will there be 1 million self-sufficient millionaires and 5 million poverty-stricken homeless people in this society? Then no. And if everyone is self-sufficient... how is that even society? (And how did we get here from a joke about paid picketers?)
History may not repeat itself, but it sure as hell stutters. Now the Clinton Presidency is "the good old days." (sigh) Rayted~
Both Clinton and Gore are extremely intelligent, and at the time forward looking in their agenda. Entrenched Democrats in Congress and elsewhere, as you state above, tend to vote for political reasons not for the forethought of people in mind. Republicans do the same, and sad to say, all are guilty of seemingly reckless disregard for the "people" who did not elect them. Protests would be nice, but I would go for a march on DC involving the millions of out of work, homeless, disparaged AMERICANS that deserve more than what has been taken, or stolen from them. Gridlock in hell. I'll betcha they had something different for lunch, you think. Good post/rated
Thanks for the insights & perspective, laughs, and, um, chills (ick, ick, ick – the contract w/America).

It’s depressing watching (what we think of as) good ideas being moved into or changed for the center.
Saturn,

I agree with your assessment when you say, “I don't understand why we aren't attacking this issue head on.”

I’ve noticed a sharp decline in the talk of “bipartisanship” in recent weeks. Does everybody remember all that bullshit about bipartisanship and, even more perplexing, “post-partisanship”?

The “Blue Dogs” have to go …

RATED
Jesus, I can't wait to hear Robert Byrd's floor speech when this comes to the Senate. Just think, universal heathcare hinges on vote of a senile, raving lunatic. He still can speak, can't he?
What is chapping my hide about this is that these "ConvervaDems," as MSM has dubbed them, keep saying that they are working to help Obama pass his budget. Hah!

They are "helping" Obama just like mobsters "help" local businesses by forcing them to pay "protection" money so that the mobsters themselves won't break any legs.

Blue Dogs, ConservaDems, whatever...they are just making not-so-veiled threats to break Obama's legs if he doesn't let them gut his proposals until they resemble Republican policies.
As you point out, the issues is that Congress people are thinking about their future (being re-elected), rather than the future of the country. Someone needs to paint a better picture of what the world can look like WITH these investments, and then take a hard look at what "more of the same" will bring us. We are getting a glimpse into Pres. Obama's world, but it needs to be fleshed out with more numbers and details. Slightly beyond my scope, but perhaps someone else could attempt it...
I've been sending angry emails and making angry phone calls to my two senators, Udall and Bennett. I'm so pissed about this -- why the hell this bunch of morons would let the Republicans win is beyond me. You know the effing R-caucuses are doing happy dances in the back rooms on Capitol Hill and it just makes me sick.
The reason why is because Clinton is smart enough to realize that you can't implement socialism without businesses just saying F this -- all leaving your sorry ass.
Only a couple of election cycles ago Colorado had 2 republican senators (although one, Ben Campbell, the pretended native American, was elected as a D and switched early on). Now we have 2 Dems, one elected and one newly appointed. Both have joined this BS moderate caucus with Bayh. I am furious, but for some reason their sight is limited a past purple time when Colorado was turning rather than the present when it is clearly Blue.

I listened to Dave Sirota this morning on my way to work, and he was advocating for a primary challenge to Bennett, the appointed senator, when the election for that seat comes up in 2 years. I am there, so there. If Obama didn't convince the Ds that they can win by being boldly Ds and not timidly Rs, then those Ds have to go. Moderation in the service of self preservation in a vice today, not a virtue.
Contract on America was more like it!
I think the goal here of the Republicans is to defeat the Democrats, at all cost and by any means. They want the President to fail. They are running for office, the government and economy be damned. We need a new second party for the Republicans as a political party can no loner be trusted.
A note to McGarrett: one of the big complaints many people had about the stimulus bill was the amount of money that was cut from upgrading existing schools and building new ones. Not only are those construction jobs that will now not get created, but it means millions of kids crammed into old, crumbling, overcrowded buildings that make educating them that much more difficult.

And Saturn, a note on the lunch menu: that's a recession lunch! The lawmakers get to eat the same way millions of unemployed people are eating right now. I hope someone bothers to point that out to them.
democrats really need to grow some balls. we elected them in 2006 to put and end to Iraq and they wussed out. they need to show some courage, and right now!
For jimmymac1025:
I hope you're right because if he doesn't, he's toast and will be a one-termer. And his own party will have done him in!!
Why do we still have Clingon brains? Why do we still have brains set on ideas that haven't been relevant for the past eight years of insane destruction? Why should those ideas be wasting our time now?

Look...we're in an unprecedented mess and we're living unprecedented times. Hi falutin' principles (with no specific details) made up by out of office, irrelevant, or dead politicians aren't going to help us one bit.

But we do have our first Black President. Too many people on both sides of the aisle are suspiciously ready to appoint themselves as smarter and more capable than he is, simply based on who he is.

We're only two months into this presidency and I will let the Democratic party and the never ending inappropriate attention to those self serving Clingons become a permanent part of my past before I am willing to trash the man before he can get something done.

As for the Republicans...who?
Good history, although I draw a very different lesson. :) More generally, the fiscal position of the United States puts tight constraints on Mr. Obama too, in particular, the now beginnning retirement of the Baby Boomers, that crazy aunt.
That will limit what he can do, especially because W. left him in a trap in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Absent a total alteration in the world balance of power, the United States is stuck in those places for a while, at best.
At worst, we would suffer a crushing defeat in those places, in which you could expect a follow on sell-off of Treasuries, because if the U.S. is not globo-cop anymore, the hegemonic power, the argument for holding Treasuries is weaker, if near non-existent; this is what Russia is working hard to accomplish right now.
I would personally move in a different direction than Mr. Obama, but then I am to the Right of Attila the Hun, on some topice, mainly national security.
However, I do not favor "my" Republicans, or the Left of the Democratic Party, making it harder for him to accomplish the good that he can do within the constraints he faces.
Both the Left and the Right, it seems to me, should be very wary of making the perfect the enemy of the good.
I saw Ira Magaziner speak about health care once, and he made this very point, that he expected to spend time battling Republicans who would let people with appendicitis die in the gutter AND even more time battling people who on the Left who wanted the moon, and he turned to the crowd and said
"Are you happy? It is an imperfect world, but there are more uninsured, (like this poster) now than before. Are you really happy?"
let the perfect be no the enemy of the good, i say. rated for historical importance. :)
While we don't know what would have happened if Clinton's "investments" budget had been passed, we do know that the deficit reducing did have a very positive effect on our economy. It produced one of the longest sustained periods of growth in this country.
perdidochas,

You write that the deficit reduction “produced one of the longest sustained periods of growth in this country”. That is an interesting conclusion; can you support this conclusion?

Did deficit reduction produce the growth, or did growth help reduce the deficit?
Saturn: "Is there a number that would be too much for me, McGarett? Sure: $1 over whatever it would take to fully fund social programs in a way that creates a supportive, though not overwhelming, system to help people secure lives free from poverty, poor health, limited education, and a dangerously changing climate. Can I give you a number on that? Not right now."

Me: Here are some problems I see with your answer...1) Poverty is relative. Someone always have something that someone else feels they should also have. 2) Poor health is a fact of live at some point in all of our lives. Can't be free of it. 3) Even if you believe that humans impact the climate some, money can't stop some aspects of climate changes. Natural processes have not stopped.

So, basically, you are willing to create unlimited obligations for the government which means you answer to my first question that there is no amount of money that is too much.

Saturn: "And on education: please note that this same Congress cut more than $5 billion -- BILLION -- in proposed spending on education from the stimulus plan. I don't think they treat education as the sacred cow that it has been previously."

Me: If it was only a proposal, then it is not a cut. There are lots of proposals. A cut is when less is spent this year than last.

Saturn: "Would I rather have a society made up of self-sufficient people? That depends: will there be 1 million self-sufficient millionaires and 5 million poverty-stricken homeless people in this society? Then no. And if everyone is self-sufficient... how is that even society? (And how did we get here from a joke about paid picketers?)"

Me: I assume you are dramatically exaggerating the definition of "self-sufficient" to ask how that could even be a society. Self-sufficient would mean that citizens are able to have businesses and jobs that allow them to pay for their housing, food, etc without needing a dole out from the government. You can't seriously argue that people making money from work is less desireable than having people on the dole not supporting themselves?
I'm sorry, folks, I'm behind, and I've used my Internet time to put up something new instead of giving this the responses it deserves. Depending on my schedule today (I'm at a law school visit), I'll catch up this afternoon. Thanks for your thoughtful replies.
WCD, it will be interesting to see how Byrd reacts, you're right -- but I think he'll toe the line.

Brian, I agree -- their help is the worst kind of help. Maybe even worse if they really believe they're helping.

Details, yes, I agree, more salesmanship is needed, Lalucas, but I feel like the White House is doing what it can -- why aren't congresspeople fighting back harder? Why is Harry Reid going out and discouraging liberal groups from running ads about the budget, you know? Boo.

That's strange, Nick, I don't remember Clinton wanting socialism...

It may come down to primary challenges, Tim -- in some cases, I hope it does, and that this comes back to haunt some people if they push things to the extreme.

Don, I agree in principle on the perfect/good argument, but I don't think that's what's the problem here -- I think Democrats tend to confuse any kind of progress with the good, and so we end up signing on to mediocrity instead of actual good and saying we're doing it because we can't achieve the perfect. But I can see how from the other side Obama's initial plan looks ideal instead of like a big wad of compromise.

Perdidochas, I agree with Rick -- has there been significant proof that the deficit reduction was good for the country? Or was it some combination of other events that spurred growth?

McGarrett -- poverty as a concept is relative, but there's a federal poverty level that's pretty concrete. I'll grant you that poor health is eventual, but I mean sustained and unecessary poor health brought on by lack of access to decent medical care. And I don't want to stop natural processes, as you call them, but the dangerous change of climate brought on by human consumption, waste, pollution, etc -- hope that was clear from "dangerously."

I do recognize there is a point at which national debt becomes too high to allow growth and at which it makes our current expenditures on social programs unsustainable. I'm against spending beyond that. To say I'm "willing to create unlimited obligations for the government" is pretty broad, considering I just said I have specific goals and limits, and that you could choose to infer from that my desire to see those enacted by a government with the power to do so -- therefore, a government with sustained financial health and international power, neither of which is possible with a strangling amount of debt (nor possible, I might add, with a complete withdrawal of social support). Instead, you've taken this to an extreme that doesn't represent my issue, but does seem to encapsulate your own picture of my views. I'm not nearly as radical as you'd like me to be, but keep trying, maybe I'll snap.