Saturn Smith

Orbital Matter
Editor’s Pick
SEPTEMBER 4, 2009 2:27PM

Unemployment Still Sucks

Rate: 10 Flag

 

Not to put too fine a point on it, but this sucks:

In August, the number of unemployed persons increased by 466,000 to 14.9 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent. The rate had been little changed in June and July, after increasing 0.4 or 0.5 percentage point in each month from December 2008 through May. Since the recession began in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.4 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.8 percentage points. (See table A-1.)

You wanna know what table A-1 looks like?  Here you go:


Oh, sorry, that's a graph. Anyway. U-6, the number that really tracks who's unemployed, is still discouraging, but hasn't changed since last month: 16.8 percent. Andrew Leonard, as always, has a better breakdown.

Wasn't the stimulus supposed to help by now? Well, yes and no. Von at Obsidian Wings makes a long and credible argument that the stimulus as passed was too back-loaded, providing to much money for job creation next year and not enough for the current year. I can see that logic, and as someone still without a job, I, too, wish there'd been a bigger investment early on.

But to say that the stimulus isn't working fast enough isn't quite true. The Treasury and Energy Departments announced just this week that they're investing about $500 million in 12 wind and solar farm projects in the U.S., an announcement that comes a month earlier than the deadline for making the awards. I'm particularly happy about this announcement, as Oregon -- the state with the second-highest unemployment in the country and, yes, my home -- will benefit most from the investments, with over $130,000,000 coming to three big projects. (More on that next week).  You can argue that that money is still too late, and certainly it didn't boost today's numbers -- but the prospect of that money on the horizon (it's expected to be disbursed in the next month) will keep many people working and kick planning for these projects into higher gear. That will help next month's numbers, and the next, and the next.

I agree that the stimulus plan, as written, has problems, but it is in large part being deployed more quickly and often more efficiently than I had expected. Which doesn't make these numbers any easier to take, but does, at least, remind me that things are still scheduled -- sigh -- to get better soon.

 

 <i>Update</i>: Apparently, there's a way to make these numbers seem much brighter.  "Nation's Unemployment Outlook Improves Dramatically After Fifth Beer."  The Onion never disappoints.


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The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the economy overall is starting to improve faster than it would have without the stimulus money (1% contraction last month vs. 3.6%, or something like that, I'm not good with economics and may have my time frame for reporting off). Though we're not seeing it in the unemployment numbers yet, recovery appears to be trying to rise out of the ashes.
Yeah, Paul Krugman had a piece today noting that the recession is probably officially over, too. But Krugman also noted that unemployment continues to rise -- and that if the goal of the stimulus is to mitigate unemployment, it's not doing its job. I'm still iffy on that, because I think there's a measure of maintenance of employment in the money that's unmeasurable, but I understand the argument and the frustration.
People are still being laid off, the rate has just slowed. That means we haven't hit the top of that frown. When more people are being hired than fired, I'll say we've recovered.
Yeah. A jobless recovery seems quite likely.
Poo. I've expanded my job search to other cities in other states. A hell-spawn-less future becomes more and more real every day.
Poo, indeed, Jon. It's supposed to get worse before it gets better, too -- say six months of worse, coming up.
The stimulus was like opium for the masses to para quote Marx. You can be sure that whatever Congress concocts will be just that a concoction.
Rebecca Johnston, the star of Obama's campaign infomercial, has to enlist in the army in order to get health benefits for her family and kids. This is a 34 year old mother of 4:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/02/rebecca-johnston-mother-o_n_274401.html
The job situation is horrible out there.
I checked. Yep. Still 4-F. There'll have to be other options for me. But it's a bummer that we're still sending poorer people to fight a rich man's war.
it is the little things. the supply chain has been pretty much depleted for consumer goods so that has to ramp up. silly valley companies are starting to hire again, selectively, but hiring. some are still laying off, but those are positions that are being reworked into something else, or they are going away.

retail is not as fragile as it was, though people are making better and more careful choices about what they are buying.

the supply of cheap vehicles is also down from its high thanks to the junk heap swap meet called dump a wreck. so they have to make more of those too.

slowly, it is turning around. but it won't be the same look or feel as before. everyone is way to cautious, including the banks who are still sitting on piles and piles of money.

I hope you find a job you like soon Saturn.
The bush legacy lives on.
The disaster slows, but the stimulus was loaded with useless tax cuts and jobs only for a relative few. It is not a jobs program, which it should have been: more jobs-> more income-> more spending-> more production-> more jobs.
In order to spend stimulus money, the recipients need a plan. A town in Maine will need a new school soon. They can do it with stimulus money. First, they needed to find out if it was available, then vote to hire a planner/architect. Then they have to vote on the plans and the allocate the money. Then they have to get the stimulus money.

They're doing this, but they are still some ways away from hiring the contractors and creating some construction jobs. And of course, if the ground if frozen when everything's authorized, they'll need to wait until spring.

The people ready to break ground promptly, probably already had the decisions made and the architectural plans in place. They probably would have built without stimulus money, unless poor tax receipts created too big a financial problem.
For 25 years I have occasionally written letters pointing out that it's possible to use unemployment compensation as subsidies for jobs in companies, particularly small, struggling businesses, and as long as it is done in a way which prevents undercutting of the wage base (and it can be), it can do a number of good things: help create or replace jobs right away (with priority for rehires), get the wage differential between UC payments and the job's wages circulating in the economy, and help the business grow. I'm a liberal and I thought of it before Newt Gingrich did (though he wasn't thinking of protecting the wage base), but neither he nor anyone else is talking about it now. If you like the idea, pass it around and discuss it. Maybe someone in government will notice.
You know what else sucks?

Actually being unemployed.