Saturn Smith

Orbital Matter
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SEPTEMBER 16, 2009 6:49PM

Tales of a Former Treasury Secretary

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On this anniversary of the Fall of Lehman, I'd like to take a moment to discuss one of the big "villains" of that era: Mr. Hank "King Henry" Paulson, the former treasury secretary.  About a week ago, I stayed up late to devour Todd Purdham's lengthy, three-years-in-the-making piece on Paulson, which I recommend. Of the Current Events must-reads on my list this fall, Hank Paulson's memoir of the crisis probably makes the top ten. I'm really (really!) not an ongoing Treasury Secretary Stalker, I promise (and not just because it's a condition of my parole). Instead, I want to read Paulson's book because I find him to be a compelling character in our recent national drama: For better and worse, he's simultaneously the man who said in mid-2008 that the system was strong and everyone was handling things just fine and the man who only weeks later went down on one knee to beg Nancy Pelosi to pass the bank bailout.  He's the man who was -- it seems -- very much driving the bus when Lehman went under it.

But he's not that simple.  At times he seems like a Democrat trapped in Republican cabinetry: He's rumored to have willed the entirety of his fortune, upon his death, to nature conservation, because "saving the environment is a 'race against time, the ultimate global issue.'" While working for Goldman Sachs in Illinois, he and his wife lived in a farmhouse that had, at one point, four named raccoons running freely through it, along with Paulson's pet snakes, flying squirrels, mice, dogs, cats and turtles. He names Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank as his favorite congresspeople in the Purdham interview. He is the author of the bank bailout and about the first advocate for cash infusions into banks -- also known in GOP circles as socialism -- that we saw last year.

He's also the guy who engineered some rather shady deals while in the Bush administration, deals (like the AIG bailout) that have benefited Goldman Sachs, his old company, and deals (like the failure of Lehman Brothers) that seem to have been botched as much through neglect and disorganization as malevolent intent.  While at Goldman, he pushed for and benefited from the rule changes in the 1990s and early 2000s that contributed to the current crisis.  And he still seems to believe that he wouldn't do much differently, given the chance.

In short, I do not know what to make of Henry Paulson. I do not believe Purdham's claim that history will figure this out; I think, perhaps, that questions about the character and make-up of a man, any man, but particularly a distant, celebrity figure like Paulson, are often unanswerable, because they require a level of objectivity people just cannot achieve. I would like to believe that Hank Paulson was a villain, but I am increasingly aware that it's just not that simple. He, like even those I hate the most, was usually doing what he thought was best. He was usually doing the best that he could, and if that is his failing, well, it's really the failing of the man who hired him.

Just as I don't know what to make of Paulson, neither, it seems, does Todd Purdham, even after three years of semi-regular meetings with the man who had the nation's ATM card in his pocket. Purdham's piece is a wonderful example of post-event journalism, the kind of thing for which Bob Woodward is pretty famous. Purdham essentially traded continuing access for a guarantee not to print anything as it happened. This is a bit of a Faustian bargain -- a journalist trades away the opportunity to report on news as it happens for better long-term access to the source. The idea is that seeing someone more regularly, and talking to them over the longer term, often provides a more accurate picture -- with that much-lauded journalistic ideal, context -- of the man in the center of the storm. Beyond which, of course, there are dozens of other journos covering the day-to-day. 

It took me a while, but I think this bargain was worth it, even with how ultimately unsurprising the long piece on Paulson is. Was Paulson more candid with Purdham than he's been in other interviews? Sure.  Purdham's promise to keep things off the record until they couldn't change the immediate course of things most likely did elicit commentary that will help future journalists and historians clarify what exactly happened last year. 

But there's a price for all of that, and reading something like Purdham's piece so quickly after the fact, the cost seems particularly clear. If, a year ago, Henry Paulson had come out and said, Pelosi is right, the Republicans are wrong, and I'm being obstructed from adequately doing my job by the ideological bent at the White House, he could have changed the course of our current national crisis. At the very least, he could have changed the tone of the conversation about it, instead of letting it become an even deeper, more entrenched partisan battle. A member of the Bush cabinet speaking out about the Bush madness -- and speaking out clearly, in a language of numbers, from the strength of his Goldman Sachs, friend-of-the-street credentials -- would have meant something in September 2008. Hearing it a year later is interesting, but has less effect.

I'd apply that to most of the post-mortems I'm seeing today about Lehman, as well. Understanding what happened after the fact is nice, but I don't think we're yet so far away that we can understand things.

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Very interesting and evenhanded essay, Saturn. I have similar reactions as you do, just from hearing Purdum interviewed on NPR recently.
I'm still at a point of not knowing with Paulson, I admit; I'm glad I'm not the only one. Thanks, Silkstone.
I don't think Paulson is a villain -- if he had done nothing last year, then yes, he would have been a villain, but the man did step in and do what was absolutely contrary to his nature, and he did it for the greater good. Of course, I wish he had seen the light before he had to start throwing our billions of dollars into sectors of the economy that should have been able to stay the domain of private capital. He unfortunately inherited the detritus of 7 years of neglect and failure to enforce laws that might have lessened the crisis that hit on his watch.

And now, I fear we will slowly slide right back into the same unregulated morass once again if the current administration, along with its allies in the Democratic Congress, do not pass legislation that makes it illegal for Big Finance to gamble irresponsibly with our money.
I'm slightly more hopeful about some change on the horizon since the introduction of the proposals about capital limits, Procopius, but I think you're right to be skeptical -- they aren't nearly as stringent as I'd hoped.
You write that Henry Paulson "was usually doing the best that he could..." My question is: Doing the best that he could for whom? Himself, his old firm, Goldman Sachs (Yes!), the country (I don't think so).
By their fruits ye shall know them.

Incompetence is a sin. Willful ignorance is a sin. And good deeds won't buy your way into Heaven. It's easy to spot the good guys: they were the ones telling the truth. Everyone else was part of the problem.
I really don't know, littlewillie. I don't feel confident enough from the evidence I have to say Paulson was out for anything other than what he thought was best for the financial system. Does that incorporate the country as a whole, as we might see it -- the folks who have nothing to do with any money trading, Wall Street, etc.? Maybe not. But I just don't know. And I think if he was only out for himself or Goldman Sachs, man, he could've done a lot better for both of them.

Harry, the idea of incompetence as a sin is very hard for me to grasp.
Your helpful analysis is much appreciated, Saturn. I try to look at Hank Paulson through several different lenses, including Warren Buffett's; adding yours to the mix adds lots of clarity. Thanks for posting this.
Thanks for this and I look forward to tackling the Purdham piece.
Littlewillie has it exactly right. I mean, it was no more a coinncidence that Goldman came out ahead while its competitors lost than it was that Halliburton did so well during the Cheney years. If you want to believe Paulson is some kind of white knight, though, go ahead; we have freedom of religion in this country.
after reading Matt Latimer's account of Paulson in those last days of the Bush moment, I am thinking the dude is just not all that. I wish they had gone another way. There has to someone else. Sigh.

Did you see Latimer's new book? Speech-less.
This made me think of a quote from Renoir's "The Rules of the Game":
"The awful thing about life is this: Everybody has their reasons."
Goldman came out ahead because they got out while the getting was good. At the time, people at places like Lehman and Bear Stearns were shaking their heads, thinking that Goldman was leaving money on the table.

And they were. They didn't get out at the peak, they got out a little before it, so for a couple of months people were laughing at Goldman.

There's a saying that bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

Goldman makes a lot of money by being smart and being willing to book profits instead of trying to run the string out forever.