The Gulf Oil Spill: Worst-Case Scenario Now Even Worse
Last week, I talked a little about how inconceivable the amount of oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico was and how long the clean-up is likely to take. Turns out it's now twice as inconceivable. Take it away, New York Times:
A government panel on Thursday essentially doubled its estimate of how much oil has been spewing from the out-of-control BP well, with the new calculation suggesting that an amount equivalent to the Exxon Valdez disaster could be flowing into the Gulf of Mexico every 8 to 10 days.So: between 1,050,000 and 1,260,000 gallons of oil could be flowing from the Deepwater Horizon spill every day. This is an estimate from before BP crookedly cut a kinked pipe last week to begin their new capping project. The new cap on the broken riser is apparently catching about 15,000 barrels/630,000 gallons a day.The new estimate is 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day. That range, still preliminary, is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.
This will, as the Times says, have an impact upon the clean-up efforts, the ability that BP will have to process captured oil as it comes up and the amount that BP will have to pay.
Here's another interesting side note, though: over a million gallons of crude oil a day is actually an impressive chunk of U.S. oil production. The Department of Energy estimates current U.S. Crude Oil/Petroleum use to be at around 19,000,000 barrels (798,000,000 gallons) per day. Sure, taking 25,000 gallons out of that big number doesn't seem like much, but digging further into the U.S. Energy Information Administration, we come up with this disturbing chart:
U.S. Weekly Supply (Domestic Crude Oil Production:
4/30/10: 5.5 million barrels/231 million gallons
5/14/10: 5.5 million barrels/231 million gallons
6/4/10: 5.4 million barrels/226 million gallons
That's weekly supply. The Gulf Coast spill has been gushing between 7 and 9 million gallons (167,000 to 210,000 barrels) of oil every week at the new low end/old high end estimate. So: in the month of May, three to four percent of our national monthly oil production poured into the Gulf of Mexico.
Maybe four percent doesn't seem like a lot. Taking Tony Hayward's point of view, there's like 96 percent of the oil we produce in the U.S. that isn't currently clogging the Gulf! Also, the amount that's in the water is tiny compared to what average daily use is in America. We've so far only lost about 2 full days of regular oil consumption to this spill.
That's actually the part I find most troubling. This is statistically a tiny, tiny spill, a drop in the bucket of oil production and drilling, use and supply, worldwide -- yet it's an enormous event, in terms of environmental damage. The smallest change in one leads to a gigantic upheaval in the other.
Since the numbers from the current spill only seem to be getting worse as we know more, I can only imagine that the impact of the spill will be beyond what's being discussed. Where, I wonder, are the worst-case scenario numbers for that? It's probably time to revise them upwards.
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Catherine Forsythe
Writer to the Stars
Emily Holleman
Iron Skillet
Leslie Harpole
old new lefty
Salon.com
Comments
Bring on those worst case estimates. I think we need to at least ponder them now, not later. If they turn out to be false, great. But if not, we'd damned well better be prepared.
Thanks for being a great OS reporter, Saturn with your moon in Titan.
Note also that IF (and I know that this is an assumption), they are capturing over 50% of the oil, than less than 15,000 b/d are currently being spilled into the Gulf. If you are keeping track, the amount "spewing into the Gulf" is the total produced by the well (which are the estimates) minus the amount captured.
I am surprised at the amount of oil this is producing partially because of working through the same logic as you did. That is, I felt that the estimates in the 100k range were unrealistic because that would be at the upper limit of historical gushers and a large percent of our Gulf of Mexico production.
I think BP is close to turning this around, by capturing most of the oil within the next week and perhaps all of it within a month.
In addition, the #1 top kill well is currently @ 8,000 feet, with a planned depth of 13,000. The last time they reported against plan, they were 10 days ahead of schedule on the relief well.
I think it is almost impossible to have any optimism until the flow into the Gulf is eliminated.
Right now, this is seeming depressingly close to the Ixtoc I blowout in 1979. That well was thought to be releasing between 30,000 and 10,000 b/d for over 9 months. The current attempts to capture the oil plus the much faster schedule for relief wells increase the probability that this will not be the worst spill in the history of the Gulf.
Does anyone wish McCain/Palin were in charge of this? What would Sarah have done with the Cheney/Bush MMS? Make big changes to a corrupt culture? Or tell it to drill baby drill?
One thing FOR SURE about rw's, when either their MONEY ($$$) or their actual, not fantasized, FREEDOM (v. prison) is on the line they will, in a hurry, squeal, snitch, narc and rat-out every single one above them, which will leave directly at Cheney's 100 secret meetings, many with BP directly ... ironically, there is a good chance it will be a Halliburton employee who whistle blows, as the sea water - concrete fiasco is at the heart of this ... watch how they turn turtle once the heat is on!
And, watch how the Prez cleans up yet another Cheney/Bush mess with yet another example of why modern America is BUILT ON THE NEW DEAL, AND NOW WE WILL HAVE THE NEW, NEW DEAL, but it is only for Southerners who 2 months ago couldn't scream loud enough about a black man (which hes not) in the White House.
As a surfer, this is like a knife in the back ... as a political observer- the facts are in- DIGEST EM"
At some point the games will have to stop and the duologue will have to begin in which we address things in terms of reality.
My guess is that the real numbers are much, much, worse. Call me Debbie Downer but here's what I think.
- The seafloor is compromised and there are multiple large leaks.
- It's going to take a year or more to stop it.
- Most, if not all of the Gulf, will be a nice big dead zone between the unprecedented use of dispersant's and the flowing oil.
I sure hope they are finally being honest and realistic with us but considering what has happened to this point it's safe to assume that this is not the case.
If you think about it, speaking candidly about a disaster of this magnitude might do more harm than good at this point. In this day and age our Federal Government basically works for large Corporate interests rather than us and it's pretty much a given that neither of them or even capable of being honest.
Dutch companies are offering "spinners" (I think they're called) to separate the oil from the water. Kevin Costner has some kind of device available. There's a warehouse in Maine full of berns requested by Bobby Jindal.
None of this has been pursued by leadership challenged Obama. Where's the outrage here about that?
Fifty-one days and he NEVER spoke to anyone at BP.
I would take anything they say with a very large grain of salt.
The Spill, The Scandal and the President | Rolling Stone Politics
www.rollingstone.com
ttp://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0602/month-oil-spill-goldman-sachs-sold-250-million-bp-stock/
RRR
None of the Talking Head seem to mention Cheney and his connection. Even the Supreme Court ruled against the people by stating that the names of the corporations that attended the meeting did not have to be made public.
This is HOPEFULLY a new day and the people need their day in court.
Right now I'm wishing there was a forgiving God to right man's wrong. But this is such a tragedy and mess any God(ess) would have high-tailed in the complete opposite direction.
then,
post-
intense anguish,
you get up, speak.
The Moon won't blacken,
Let's hope not. Lava next?
`
The Blog by Regan Nelson?
She is in DC and on the staff of:`
The National Resource Defense.
She has been to the Gulf Region.
She will be speaking on `The Disaster in The Gulf. The group DC's Surfrider Foundation. I met some Staff at the Earth Day Event at Fort Detrick, Maryland.
Our Small Farm was there.
You meet Good People too.
See * Regan Nelson's Blog?
She is a Senior Staff spokesperson @ NRDC Natural Resource Defense Council in DC. Sad.
NRDC Switchboard Blogger.
I get a email from the good Friendly Sane Folk @ Sulfrider Foundation. Mess is a MESS.
dcchapter@sulfrider.org //.
I wondered when in the first EMERGENCY response the CEP's skilled scientist recommended gold ball to be tossed down the hole. Then, I said `Maybe if the goldball CEO runs ut of Balls and Wall Street Ball CO GO MOON!
Wall Street OIL dig Saturn!
Next? Old Goat Cheese Puff!
?
In Prime Time TV Interviews?
Sound Off song tune`Bad Boys.
My Granddaughter is very sad.
She 'Ordered' me to wash ducks.
I did take take her for a ice cream.
At Borders She Buys a Ocean Book.
She paid almost 1/3 the price. $18.
I don't care if it's only .01% of the world's oil production, I know some dead turtles and some dead pelicans that have an issue with this...
He said it himself. As did Gibbs. Obama said he didn't want to talk to CEO's because they tell you what they want you to hear but don't do anything.
Check it out. He just NOW "summoned" the BP chairman to his office. It's all over the news.
Google it for yourself. The man is an incompetent klutz.
Very scary times these. I am haunted by how many of those rigbs are out there--far more than I ever thought...
That is a number I dont even want to consider.
We need not conjecture much on this subject because Palin herself has spoken to it. Moreover, her statements have credibility, unlike those of Obama whose dishonesty extends to misrepresenting the opinions of experts on the subject of the moratorium.
As one who is experienced in dealing with drilling, Palin would have taken charge immediately and brought all engineering expertise together to come up with a solution. She knows many of these experts on a first-name basis.
She might have prevented the catastrophe from happening in the first place by dealing with the federal overseers with vigor instead of purchased neglect.
She would not have hesitated to sweep away hoary legislative impediments to accepting much needed help from abroad.
She certainly would not have rubbed salt in the wound by ordering a six-month drilling moratorium, thus putting hundreds of workers out to pasture.
Instead of an expert with guts, we get our hapless politico, whose every move is dictated by media observations the day before, who points more fingers than he has on his hands, and who comes up with the world's lamest excuses for not taking the most elementary actions in response to a catastrophe--talking promptly to the head of the company most immediately responsible.
Maybe after a one-page resume results in a one-term presidency, Obama apologists will come to realize what a tragic mistake it was for the majority of Americans to indulge itself in the romantic fantasy that Obama could be anything close to an effective president. According to the polls, that majority has already wised up.
http://www.ifitwasmyhome.com/
Full disclosure, first. I've never liked Obama and despise him now. I always thought he was an empty suit, unfit to govern anything.
That said, I don't think he's trying to be conciliatory anywhere. I think he's indecisive and unable to make a decision. Look at all the times he voted "Present" when he was in office in Chicago. He's afraid to "administer," to really lead.
Many articles have appeared from his supporters -- Maureen Dowd, Peggy Noonan, Juan Williams, among a few (I won't count his longtime detractors) -- who are stunned by his plain incompetence. Noonan and Dowd describe him as watching events from a balcony, passively looking at the passing parade.
You mention Bush -- Sharpton, Jackson, Dick Durbin and others were howling spit at him only THREE days after Katrina. Where were the cries for action after the spill from politicians and the media? Just now, a few, and not as vitriolic as those against Bush.
This is not to defend Bush, only to say that Obama gets a pass on almost anything these days. It took him TEN days after the spill to even address the issue. Is this leadership? Is this a man who wants to roll up his sleeves and try to figure out what to do.
So, you're right -- a MEETING wouldn't have accomplished much -- depending upon what happened there. But it's not the actuality of a meeting that's important, it's that it took him this long to decide to have a meeting.
He's essentially a child, a bully and a coward who hides behind his office rather than using it.
An I am enraged at this. Nationalize Oil now, today!
the ongoing financial disaster as much as the currently ballooning ecological crisis are not one-off acts of god, they are the typical product of sclerotic and corrupt societies. they will be ever more frequent, ever more catastrophic, as increasing stress arises from diminishing resources.
the long range 'worst case' will be a polluted planet and collapsed economy, held together by martial law.
Respectfully, are you nuts? The government can't take a leak without pissing on its shoes and you want them to take over the oil industry? Medicare, Social Security, the Post Office -- all in the toilet, thanks to government.
I swear, this place is like a corner bar where every drunk spouts any dumb idea that pops into his head.
How do you think "nationalizing oil" would work? What's the process? The mechanism? Enlighten me while I pick up my Jack Daniels.
After the notion of nationalizing the oil industry has been correctly characterized as nutty, it's difficult to come up with a stronger adjective to describe the above bit of "reasoning." Yet buying into it may explain a lot about why Obama's performance during this crisis, knocked by friends and foes alike, has been so pathetically ineffective and misguided.
The oil crisis hardly represents anything like an attack by a hostile agent. BP and the US have cooperated for years in providing the American public and others with a commodity which enriches and elevates the human condition. Both parties have dropped the ball big time in producing the present crisis, but it is preposterous to suppose that remedial action should be undertaken in an adversarial rather than a cooperative context.
Those skilled in business and political leadership would as a matter of instinct have immediately summoned together those with authority and capacity to advise and to act in an all-0ut effort to make real progress. Instead, from under his desk, Obama has dispatched speech writers, authorized criminal investigations, and perhaps most sadly, watched the media in order to locate the dyke holes into which to place the presidential pinkie.
April 16, EMAIL JUST RELEASED from BP ENGINEER RIGHT BEFORE DISASTER!
Gordo, Truth Hits Everybody! as stated, and I can't call them snitches, bad choice, truth tellers is what they are- the singing starts; the lies come out.
Cheney/Bush Energy Secretary- Sam Bodman, who for years ran a Texas-based chemical company on the top five list of the country's worst polluters.
Obama Energy Secretary- Steve Chu, former director of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Lawrence Labs- one of the primary reasons for the actual true nature of American Exceptionalism.
I leave it to rational minds- Cheney/Bodman: architects of the mess; v., Obama/Chu, both of whom have been working daily on this PLANNING THE RESPONSE- that is how the big boys take care of business rather than leaving a legacy of failure and excuses.