Orbital Matters

Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith
Birthday
April 06
Title
Ms.
Company
The Solar System
Bio
Everything posted here, and more random thoughts, are also posted at my web site: http://kepkanation.com.

Editor’s Pick
APRIL 10, 2011 8:34PM

Climate Change Hits North Dakota, Again (and Again)

Rate: 10 Flag

Record temperatures in the arctic have been linked to the snowstorms this year that are currently causing the fourth-worst flood of all times in Fargo, North Dakota. Last year, they had the fifth-worst flood of all time, and two years ago, the worst ever. It's been that kind of decade for the Dakotas. As climate change gets worse and worse, I imagine the world will need many, many more sandbags, or, perhaps, the world will need many more sandbag replacements (NYT):

DBD4E727-DAF8-4BCB-A579-7327546699B2.jpg
Sandbagging in Fargo. Adam Quartarolo
As Fargo, N.D., confronts its third major flood in three years, local governments, businesses and residents are shifting to a number of modern alternatives to hold back the waters of the Red River.
“I’ve seen enough sandbags for a lifetime,” said Alan Kallmeyer, who enlisted dozens of friends and co-workers the last two years for a full day of this grueling masonry, filling and stacking thousands of sandbags around his riverside house.
This year, Mr. Kallmeyer bought a device, already used by several of his neighbors, that rings his house with a four-foot-tall tube of water. The device, known as an AquaDam, cost nearly $8,000. But it took just a few strain-free hours to set up and will be just as easy to take down.

It's interesting to note that those who can't afford $8,000 in home protection will likely be relying on the old technology (sandbags) this year -- and those who can't afford even those will, likely, just be overrun. Climate change, like every other national problem we face, is going to hit those who are poor the hardest.

Along the way, though, it does seem like someone could be making a flood of money -- pun intended -- by coming up with ways to stop flooding before it starts. A guy who will pay $8,000 for an aqua fence might be convinced rather easily to pay an extra 2 percent at the gas pump if someone could make a credible, clear case for how it might stifle this record flooding in the future. You might also now be able to make a much clearer case to the people of North Dakota about Climate Change being a threat to national security: in 2009, North Dakota had to "borrow" National Guard troops from a nearby state to combat the floods, since most of its service members were in Iraq or Afghanistan.

The only plus side I can see to climate change being made real in daily life is that it might make folks more willing to do something to stop it. Otherwise, I'll be looking forward to those who called for people to move out of New Orleans to begin asking citizens in the flood plains of the Midwest to abandon their homes and livelihoods instead of giving up the habits that will make those landscapes uninhabitable.

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Comments

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Even many of the raw red meat conservatives are coming around to the idea that global warming is real. Now all we need is for the rubber to meet the road. I'm not holding my breath, what with Exxon & Co.
So great to see you, Saturn! I read an article yesterday that gave a model of how different places will be affected by rising sea levels. It's not looking good for NYC. Made me snicker because of Trump's take over of the entire waterfront and Wall Street will be under water...but the strange weather is now commonplace, and the human stories behind each disaster are truly heartbreaking.
Sometimes I think Mother Earth is shrugging her shoulders in dismay...and we should all be listening.
An excellent and reasonable essay. I am totally baffled by those deniers who cannot see what is happening all around us. Extremes of all kinds. Where I live on April 10th it was 86 degrees with a high humidity. I cringed but as an asthmatic I had no choice but to turn the a/c on. I won't go broke paying for it, but many disabled and elderly people cannot afford this. I am willing to pay more in taxes to solve this problem (and others) and I am an average person. RRRR
Great post -- and great to see you posting more, Saturn!
Thanks, everyone, it's nice to have the time to be back!
they put houses on stilts, in queensland.
The old saw about global warming being a fait accompli has been introduced into the fray, I see. Small mind, small wonder...

Excellent post, unreservedly.
Obviously the first part of my comment was aimed at the virgin Star Wars geek who lives in his mom's (flooded?) basement, and not at you, Saturn.
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I have in-laws in ND, and nicer people you'll never meet. But trying to convince them of anything that even remotely smacks of the "Liberal" agenda is as lost a cause as trying to convince the Civil War was about slavery.
Please add Southerners to my last line
While I enjoy your writing most times, this is really a stretch.

Linking a particular weather event with climate change (as per human-induced changes to the flux of light energy at the top of the earth's atmosphere via CO2 emissions) is fraught with experimental issues, uncertainties and a lack of knowledge of the true variability of the climate without our involvement.

It seems that every time we hear that climate change is causing something/will cause something, the story changes because we learn that actually the earth can make a great deal more weather patterns all on its own. For one thing, you ignore the fact that we have seen much stronger oscillations between El Nino and La Nina in the last 1o to 15 years than in the previous 30. With the strong La Nina that we have this year, temperatures all over the upper and western US are below normal and well as precipitation above normal.

So which is it? Excess snowfall from melting of Arctic sea ice combined with a natural process (Arctic Oscillation) or just the natural interactions between the continents and the heat content of the Pacific Ocean (El Nino/La Nina)?

I certainly don't know and I would hazard a guess no one knows either. But you've put yourself on a limb.

What happens if you're wrong? Is climate change not an issue anymore if it didn't cause this flood? If it is still an issue, stories like this one can make it harder to solve.
I actually just found a very nice resources in the context of this discussion.

First, more recently, is this presentation, which concludes that even though global warming/climate change is ongoing, there is not an associated increase in the amount of floods happening worldwide. There is no trend in either direction in this work.

Second is
...this paper from a few years back that concludes,

'However, observations to date provide no conclusive and general proof as to how climate change affects flood behaviour.'

In fact, more rivers had shown decreases in flooding according to that work.

So not only can we not decipher whether a specific flood is due to natural causes or is enhanced by a human-induced increase in the greenhouse effect, we cannot even tell what the effect of global warming/climate change is on floods in general.

Caution can be wisely used in this context in my opinion.
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