Orbital Matters

Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith

Saturn Smith
Birthday
April 06
Title
Ms.
Company
The Solar System
Bio
Everything posted here, and more random thoughts, are also posted at my web site: http://kepkanation.com.

Editor’s Pick
OCTOBER 9, 2011 2:52AM

Dump Biden for Hillary in '12? History Says....

Rate: 19 Flag

OK, haha, there was a Bloggingheads three-minute "discussion" of whether President Obama should trade Joe Biden to the Oakland A's for Hillary Clinton as Vice President in 2012.

This happens every four years like political scientist fantasy clockwork. Someone looks at the incumbent president and goes, "Whoa, hey, what if the VP were somebody else? Like, somebody really cool?" Then, instead of pitching that idea to HBO, where all good fantasy belongs, they mutter it on the Metro and someone in D.C. tweets it and then it gets on cable and it stays there for like 87 days between updates on sharks and hurricanes and who, exactly, is Herman Cain?

Anyway, there's precedent for this mess, and I thought it'd be fun to look it up, and then spew it onto the Internet. So let's look at The History, shall we? Has any incumbent American president ever "dumped" a vice president for purely electoral reasons and won?

Here are the winners:

Thomas Jefferson started with Aaron Burr (really, he had shut Burr out basically upon his election in 1800, after Burr had, oh, you know, almost won the White House in the electoral college, whoops!) but traded for George Clinton in 1804. Political move? Not terribly; this was personal, as was just about everything with Jefferson.

James Madison thought George Clinton was so good at his job that he had him just stay on, which Clinton did until his death in 1812. Madison went without a VP for a year, then picked up Elbridge Gerry… who also died (a year later) and was not replaced, likely because who wants a job with one hundred percent mortality rate? Also, I hear Madison was kind of a jerk.

The next president to have more than one VP was Andrew Jackson. Old Hickory inherited John C. Calhoun from his predecessor, John Quincy Adams. Calhoun served, albeit at a distance and with certain rancor between him and Jackson, for the first four years of Jackson's term. After much fighting (and the ridiculous society drama of the Eaton affair, tra la la), Calhoun ran for the Senate in South Carolina rather than remain as VP. Jackson (well, the party) replaced him with Martin Van Buren for the 1832 election. No VP since has had a nickname even slightly as cool, and MVB had two: "The Little Magician" and the "Red Fox of Kinderhook."

HannibalhamlinAfter that, we go forward to -- surprise! -- Abraham Lincoln, whose Team of Rivals didn't include Andrew Johnson until his second term in office. Lincoln ran first with Hannibal Hamlin, a Maine Democrat-turned-abolitionist-Republican. A campaign sign at the time referred to the ticket thus: "Abra/Hamlin/coln." Hamlin, who favored "radical reconstruction" of the South, was dropped from the ticket by the party (and the president) for the 1864 election, when they needed to curry favor among (remaining) Southern Democrats. Andrew Johnson more readily fit the bill. Interesting tidbit: Hamlin, while still the lame-duck Vice-President, served in the Union Army when his Maine unit was called up.

He later stood next to Andrew Johnson in the Rotunda when (spoilers!) Lincoln's body lay in state.

The next president with two VPs was Ulysses S. Grant, who started with Schuyler Colfax. Colfax announced his intention to retire in 1871, turned down Grant's suggestion he switch to the State Department that same year, then decided to run again in 1872. By that time it was too late, and Massachusetts Senator Henry Wilson won the nomination at the convention. Though both men were later tainted by the Crédit Moilier scandal, Wilson survived politically; Colfax did not and died -- not kidding! -- on a frozen train platform in Minnesota, where he was recognized only by "the papers in his pockets."

Yikes. Moving on to… more death (spoilers!):

Dear William McKinley somehow managed to fit two vice presidents into one short term: Garret Hobart started the job in 1897 and died in 1899. Teddy Roosevelt stepped in in 1901, only to become president himself six months later when McKinley was shot.

After that, there were a string of one-VP presidents until FDR took to the stage. His first VP, John Nance Garner, stuck with him for two terms and then -- here's fun -- tried to run against FDR in 1940. Roosevelt (spoiler!) won the nomination and selected Henry Agard Wallace, his secretary of Agriculture, as his next VP. After taking an active role in placing Wallace on that ticket, four years later, FDR seemed to step back, saying he would not take an active role in the convention's selection -- leaving the door open for his friends to nominate Harry S Truman for the post. FDR, as a parting gift, made Wallace the Secretary of Commerce. One imagines that, having revolutionized the office of VP, FDR was trying to find a new job to become the single most worthless cabinet position in America.

Success!

The final President to change VPs mid-office was Richard Nixon -- who had to select Gerald Ford to replace Spiro Agnew when Agnew resigned during Nixon's second term.

Thus the total tally of incumbent Presidents who dismissed Vice Presidents for political reasons is ~3, unless you count Roosevelt twice. Now, sure, Jefferson, Lincoln, and FDR aren't bad political shoes to follow in, but all three men actually traded down in political clout and knowledge when they chose their second Vice Presidents, not up, as a switch from Biden to Clinton would suggest. Which is to say this: you switch VPs when there's a very certain advantage and no appreciable disadvantage to the new candidate.

What baggage Joe Biden has is largely from goofy gaffes and, I'll grant you, from having been in Washington, D.C. since he was 29. (As I do not consider "experience" as a liability, I think this is a lovely piece to carry on to the ticket, but the current climate says no). Hillary Clinton, a much bolder (and more admirable for it) political figure, comes not only with the same Washington-insider set of luggage, she also brings a plane-load of other matching controversy (baggage code name: Bill Clinton). I mean, to paraphrase, America's met Henry Wallace, Senator Clinton, and you are no Henry "Who is that? I don't know that guy" Wallace.

So, in summary, survey says: It's not a realistic switch. But it is fun to talk about, I guess. I really liked this game best when it was called "Maybe Bush will dump Cheney for Rice in 2004!" That was something to have nightmares about.

Your tags:

TIP:

Enter the amount, and click "Tip" to submit!
Recipient's email address:
Personal message (optional):

Your email address:

Comments

Type your comment below:
Only half of Goldmann Sachs? Have you mellowed since I last saw you, BBE?

Thanks for the comment.
It's not very well known, but Bush almost did dump Cheney. But he wanted to replace him with Don Rumsfeld, with Condi as second choice. I think such talk of replacing VPs is academic. Of more concern is whether Obama can win in the face of an economic tsunami next year.
Long time, no see. Good to have you back.
Saturn: We had our chance to have Hillary in the #1 job, but she lost to Obama. Why? I swear, in my opinion, when Oprah backed BO over HC, she chose her race over her gender. It's uncountable how many people chose BO because Oprah did (assuming they were Dems to begin with).

We could have had the first woman president, but NOOOOOOOO, America wasn't ready for that. In hindsight, I think some will agree America wasn't ready for it's first Black one either.
Food for thought, Saturn. I never considered this, but what an intriguing thought. I don't think Hillary would want to play second fiddle to Obama, though. Rated.
Biden is owned and is very friendly to the Wilmington, Delaware financial and brokerage firms, which as we all know, pretty much own the state since the decline of DuPont.

Biden is no friend to the working man, despite the way he is packaged to the masses. He is one of the most pro-Wall Street, pro-Finance Democrats around. Anybody is better than Biden.
This is not an "option"- it is a GIVEN. Biden will make a great Secretary of State; haters will have to look at 2 portraits in a row on the wall that starts with Washington: first the "other", then "Her!"

Can't Wait!!!
Good read! I read eagerly to get to the Hannibal Hamlin history. I drive by Hannibal Hamlin's homestead here in Maine often. The home has a gorgeous view of the White Mountains and is in a prominent spot on Paris Hill. You write an interesting historical analysis in relation to our current politics.
Obama doesn't trust Hilary.
He likes her right where she is: frequently out of the country and #4 in line of succession.
This was fun, and educational. There are still a lot Progressives smarting over the fact that Hillary didn't get the Democratic nomination. But the Progressive base is not the demographic that has to be wooed. The pundits say it is the Independents. Who are these Independents? The group that needs to be convinced is the one camped out on Wall Street. Nothing that Obama has done in the last four years can convince them that he is anything but a Wall Street insider. I fear that this may be a "don't re-elect anyone" year with a turnover in Congress and the White House.
The only way this could happen without ruffling feathers would be if there was a vacancy on the Supreme Court and Obama nominated Biden. In many ways, the Court could be seen as a step up from Veep, plus it's a lifetime job and Biden will likely never seek the Presidency. Lot's of power on the high court.
I remember when Nixon almost got dumped from the ticket in 1956 in favor of Christian Herter, secretary of state. Would that it had happened. The only chance the Dems have this time is to dump the top of the ticket.
@ Arthur Louis: C. Herter was NOT Sec. of State in 1956, but the hack governor of Mass., my home state. He became an Under Sec. in Ike's second term, and Acting Sec. of State in 1959, for all of one month, 'till he died. I point this out lest aliens far from here read these blogs eons hence, and reach the wrong conclusion.
And clearly, nobody knows anything about Biden and the fact that 90% of America's credit card industry is based in Delaware.

Plus, the fact that 70% of America's corporations are incorporated there.
If you think a Senator or VP can be independent of such interests in such a case, you are sorely mistaken. Ralph Nader said that Delaware is the most corporatized, privatized state in the nation. That multinationals basically own the entire state.

Thanks for pointing this out in your essay.
Aside from the frozen and replacement VP, it does seem unlikely scenario for our times, too. I just do not see or hear anything from HClinton that shows someone who would be second.

Loved the history lesson. Interesting asides. Books? Where did you get the details? My favorite is the campaign slogan for Lincoln/Hamlin- "Abra/Hamlin/coln" . I can almost see Lincoln shudder as he's shown this bit of punning.

Rated, and welcome back!
BadScot, you are correct about the position Herter held in 1956. Mea culpa. However, he was indeed touted that year as an alternative to Nixon. Wikipedia says he didn't die until 1966. Hope that clears things up for all you future generations.
Up to your usual insightful, acerbic and spot-on standards...
I believe I voted for the right candidate in the primary. Now suddenly the people who voted for the wrong one are so disenchanted? I voted for a person who worked passionately for the people and had done so since she was a teenager. A teenager! The record was there, factual, available to everyone. But only the people who voted properly read it. So now hearing all the delayed reaction... "Oh gee he's not a democrat at all" - says the herd.
I think the Dems should wait until the Republicans have their ticket set, and then announce Hillary as President with whomever (even Obama as VP). I think Hillary has 1000x better chance of being elected--and Obama has no chance. He might have had a better presidency had the Republicans been willing to compromise--but he doesn't have a chance. He's sold the Dems out too many times in terms of compromise as well. Hillary is known for getting things done. She's very well respected as Secretary of State. She could win--or at least have a better chance vs. Obama.
It makes no difference who Obama's VP is or what Obama has done or hasn't done or has or hasn't proposed, the Republicans had the numbers in the Senate to obstruct his proposals/bills from the beginning because by the time bills were in committee, Kennedy was dying and absent and died, Byrd was dying and absent and died and Franken was uncertified..not to mention Landrieu, Lincoln and Nelson....Obama never had the 60 votes necessary to invoke cloture and pass a program to deal with the myriad abortions he inherited from Bush....and then came the Teapublican goons and pawns of the corporate fascists to the House.

The reality is that Jesus Christ could have been president and these mongrels from the far, far right would have done the same thing to Him they have done to Obama in order to make sure he was a "one term president!" Jesus, of course, was a very liberal liberal and a Jew...
It might make more sense to have Obama trade places with Hillary.
What is it about Democrats?
Said it before, Hillary belongs on the SC -- where her Bill-Baggage won't present a problem. Meanwhile, we need to get somebody younger on the 2012 ticket to groom for 2016 to run against Jeb Bush. Jennifer Granholm maybe?
"They" all knew that Bin Laden is dead for a long time ago, not killed by some special forces but naturally dead... I look around and see only manipulation. Eminem Quotes
Hey that might be just the best thing I have heard in awhile. Hillary for VP...
Hey, little late here, but she did say that "hard working" Americans wouldn't vote for Obama. Do we have any idea what "Hard Working Americans" means?

Oh yeah, it means "White Folks," right?

So, uh, she's like the rest of them. And by "them" you know whom I mean, herm?
Interesting stuff, Saturn. Interesting and informative lesson.

I’m expecting a big Republican win…even considering the morons they are running. Doesn’t matter who the Dems have as vice presidential candidate, I just don’t think they can win. I also expect the normally sensible, progressive agenda people who will help make the Republican candidate successful…to regret their actions with fervor AFTER it happens. But by then it will be too late.

Dumping Obama for Hillary or anyone else, as some here have suggested, will simply make the Republican victory all the greater.

As someone else noted, considering the unrelenting obstructionism, even Jesus Christ could not have gotten more done than Obama did.

Anyway, life goes on, unless we get lucky and the world actually ends in 2012.
Unlikely, unless that's what Biden wants, which I doubt.
Though both men were later tainted by the Crédit Moilier scandal, Wilson survived politically; Colfax did not and died -- not kidding! -- on a frozen train platform in Minnesota, where he was recognized only by "the papers in his pockets."

Jacksonville Roofing l Roofing Jacksonville
Thanks for sharing. I really enjoyed, I would like get more information about this, because is very beautiful, thanks for sharing.

Tampa Roofers l Roofing Tampa
Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon.
Home Quality l Home Problems
I want to thank you because even though it might have not been the greatest memory for you-it sure was for me. Your experience helped me stay alive long enough to find help.

funwebproducts spyware
It's funny how things evolve so quickly. I saw something similar with the jelqing progress of an individual who appeared to be offering useful infp
Funny, I get it. Keeping journal is a very smart practice for students and people in all sorts of industries. Just think if we could ge back to analyze all of the campaign promises made by every president; and then hold them to every word that they ever lied about. Even utilizing Student Planners to record information is progress in the right direction.
Thank you for this site is an excellent example of why I keep coming back to read your excellent quality commentary…as seen on tv
Well, I don't see anything about dumping someone. Its also his decision and its for him to suffer consequences. But I just hope, he knew the feeling of being dump.


My blog : évier de cuisine