As this past weekend began, local news media were billing it as one of the biggest weekends for sports in the Twin Cities in recent memory.  The cross-border football rivalries of the Minnesota Gophers and Wisconsin Badgers, and the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers were both being renewed, the latter not only in the spotlight of Monday Night Football but also in the context of legendary QB Brett Favre’s first game against the Packer team on which he built his legend, playing for their rival Vikings, no less. 

Lesser recognized by the national media was the Twin Cities Marathon that was run yesterday.  Also, for a little, ahem, icing:  The Minnesota Wild’s season began, though that occurred outside the Twin Cities, unlike the previously mentioned events.

In this Vikings-first state, in this NFL-first country, it seems hard to imagine anything upstaging Brett Favre playing FOR the Vikings AGAINST the Packers. 

It would probably depend on whom you ask whether this is an upstaging, but judging by the faces of the Twin Cities' two major newspapers today, it appears Brett has, indeed, been upstaged, at the very least he is certainly sharing the spotlight in this town, by the Minnesota Twins’ weekend. 

A minor afterthought in the MLB playoff picture only about 3 weeks ago, the Twins rode a wave of hot baseball (16 wins in their last 20 games), and one of mediocre baseball by the Detroit Tigers (tied or alone in first place in the AL Central since May), to a 1^st-place tie at the end of the scheduled regular season.  It culminated in a dramatic 3-game sweep of the mostly-lowly Royals this weekend, with the royal exception of Cy Young-candidate pitcher Zach Greinke, one of the planet’s most dominating pitchers, whom the Twins managed to beat 5-4 on Saturday.  These were supposed to be the last 3 games ever played in the Twins’ much-maligned home ballpark of 28 seasons, the Metrodome.  But the 1^st-place tie has forced at least one more game, to be held at the Dome thanks to the Twins winning a majority of the games they played against the Tigers during the season.

A 90-minute farewell ceremony was held after the Twins victory yesterday, marked by gathering of favored Dome-era Twins past, and capped by big former-first-baseman Kent Hrbek’s declaration that “We get to come back here on Tuesday, and drink more beer!” (to a rousing cheer from the Midwestern, winter-bound crowd). 

Handicapping Game 163 

I feel unbiased in declaring that numerous factors in Tuesday night’s game favor the Twins.  The Twins have been much hotter lately.  They’ve won the majority of their games against the Tigers this season.  This is the 3^rd straight season to include a 163^rd “Play-In” game (it’s not a “Playoff” game, as my dad declared many times yesterday), the home team has won the previous two, the Twins have winning record at home (51-30), the Tigers have a losing record on the road, and the Twins have a major home-field advantage in the Dome, anyway. 

All that said, this is obviously no cakewalk for the Twins.  If the Tigers want reason for hope, they need look no further than Twins’ starting pitcher Scott Baker.  Baker’s last start was a victory over the Tigers where he did not allow a run.  But!  His last loss:  a home game against the Tigers in which he gave up 4 earned runs.  The last time he gave up more than 4 earned runs in a game:  August 9^th, he surrendered 6 to the Tigers in Detroit.  Baker is capable of dominance:  he followed that August 9^th game with a complete-game, two-hit shutout of the Cleveland Indians.  He also took a perfect game into the 9^th inning against the Royals in 2007.  He’s also developed a slight reputation for big-game futility.  His worst outing this year was a 3-inning effort against the Yankees in which he allowed 9 hits and 5 earned runs.  That home loss to the Tigers ended a three-game series in which the Twins had won the first two games and could have moved within 1 game of first place had Baker come through.

Tigers starter Rick Porcello, while posting a 1-2 record in 3 starts against the Twins this year, has only a 3.06 ERA in those starts.  He posted two stellar games against the Twins in Detroit (the most recent still wound up a 3-2 loss for Detroit), and one poor start against the Twins in the dome, going only 4 innings and allowing 6 runs (4 earned) on July 5^th.  Porcello is a serious Rookie of the Year candidate.  He’s also 20-years-old, too young to drink a glass of victory champagne. 

Also reasons for the Tigers to hope:  the one-game “play-in” last season was lost by the Minnesota Twins.  The Twins were on the road, however, and the play-in game followed a poor effort in their final season series against the Royals, whereas the victors of that game, the Chicago White Sox, rode a momentous final few victories into the game. 

Which team is under more pressure to win?  Probably depends on whom you ask.  If you ask me:  the Tigers.  The city of Detroit was recently cursed with twin cover stories by TIME and Sports Illustrated magazine.  The SI story was about the connection between the city and its baseball team.  The TIME story included the fact that Detroit unemployment currently rests around 25%, noting that New Orleans at its worst after Katrina was around 11%.  The pressure to deliver for this troubled city could also be seen as inspiration, however. 

At the same time, a victory for the Tigers really can’t be seen as much more than relief.  The team was in first place nearly all season and to lose it like this would have to seem like a crushing disappointment.  The Twins, however, have barely been in contention all year.  As a Twins fan, I can say personally only the most desperate of dreamers would’ve been thinking they’d be this close to the playoffs just three weeks ago.  Given how high the fans are riding right now, it would certainly be sad to see it end tomorrow night, but I just can’t see how it could be nearly the level of disappointment it would be for Detroit fans. 

So the Twins should be riding high, playing loose on the cusp of a hot streak in their very friendly home park with nothing to lose and deafening cheers supporting them.  The Tigers should be playing with the same noise and unfriendly confines opposing them, burdened by the grim specter of thoroughly disappointing a city in need of uplift.  The main tangible factor, the pitching match-up, seems to slightly favor the Tigers.  Offensively, over the season, the Twins lead the Tigers in all major categories:  runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, except the Tigers have 11 more home-runs (181) than the Twins (170).  And the Twins will play without Justin Morneau, one of their biggest offensive contributors.  But the Twins went on a 6-game winning streak as soon as the injured Morneau was benched for the season.  In fact, they’re hot streak essentially began then.

As with any sporting event, we could analyze our brains out.  You tell me what will happen tomorrow.  My prediction is as good as anyone’s, or maybe it isn’t.  But for fun I’ll throw out a Twins’ win, 7-5. 

Personal Thoughts On the Game 

It’s my blog and I can carry on after my “analysis” if I want to.  My first thought, as should be any decent person’s thought:  no hard feelings, Detroit. 

The Twins’ opponent in last year’s play-in game was their arch rival, the White Sox.  There is animosity there.  I scoured the White Sox web site message boards in attempt to post a “Go White Sox!” message this weekend (the Twins are in this playoff game thanks to the White Sox {oops!  I mean:  play-in game} winning 2 of 3 games against the Tigers), and in the midst of that I caught a thread among the Sox fans asking “Who Do You Want to Win?  Twins or Tigers?”   The general sentiment I found was “anyone but the Twins”.  In fact, a few posters openly hoped the White Sox would beat the Tigers to allow this one game play-in, so the Twins could lose a play-in game for the 2^nd straight year.  While online message-boards aren’t the best place to find fair-minded sentiment, I have to imagine this one is at the core of many serious White Sox fans.  The Twins have 4 AL Central division titles this decade, the White Sox three.  But the White Sox are the only team from the divison to bring home a World Series Championship, so I have to figure they see themselves as the most successful team of the division in this decade and the sooner the Twins are eliminated this year, the quicker any felt threat to that status is erased.  Whatever happens tomorrow night, I still declare the Twins the true team of the decade for their consistent presence in the pennant race from start to finish.  They won the division in 2002 – 2004 and in 2006.  They came in 2^nd in 2001 and (an incredibly close 2^nd) in 2008.  They will add 2009 to one of those after tomorrow.  If the White Sox have the Twins beat in shear record over the decade it would only be (I’m educatedly guessing) because of the Twins’ dismal 2000 season.  After that season, the Twins finished below 2^nd place only twice and never below 3^rd place.  In the same time, the White Sox finished 3^rd place three times, and 4^th place once.

Did I just spend that big fat paragraph, allegedly about tomorrow night’s Twins/Tigers game, discussing the White Sox?  Oops.  But I think I made a point:  the game has implications for the Twins’ legacy.

One harsh apparent-reality is that the Twins and Tigers are merely playing for the privilege to get knocked out by the Yankees in the first round of this season’s playoffs.  My (Twins-loving) brother remarked in a Facebook status that there would be no more fitting end to the Twins’ time in the Metrodome than a playoff loss to the Yankees.  The Twins record against the Yankees this decade has been one of little more than complete humiliation, highlighted by first-round losses to the Yankees in 2003 and 2004.  The Twins were obliging doormats for the Yankees on their way to two dramatic ALCS’s against the Red Sox in those two years.  The Twins haven’t won in either Yankee Stadium (with the exception of Justin Morneau’s home-run derby victory last year) since I don’t want to know when.  The Twins lost all 7 of their games vs. the Yankees this season. 

Did I just spend a paragraph talking about the Yankees?  Bad idea.  Right now I can only hope dearly to have the right to discuss that dreadful subject in more detail.

We’ll see ya tomorrow night!