Out Where the Buses Don't Run

Rants from an urban guerilla exiled in Suburbia

Gus Sanchez

Gus Sanchez
Location
Fort Mill, South Carolina,
Bio
I'm New York born and raised now living in exile in the greater Charlotte NC area. I'd like to write for Salon someday, but I'll settle for posting blogs here instead. Currently, I'm making yet another attempt at writing a novel-length manuscript. This time, I'll finish it...I swear!

APRIL 6, 2010 9:59AM

The Not-So-Fearless & Marginally Biased 2010 MLB Predictions

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With the new baseball season upon us, it's time for me to present my not-so-fearless and modestly-biased predictions for the 2010 Baseball Season. But first, some questions to be answered:

1. Will the Yankees repeat as World Series champions? You'd be a fool to disagree, but they do have some question marks. Replacing Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui won't be easy, but Curtis Granderson will fill in quite nicely. They're older this time around, but they're too good all around not to repeat as champs.

2. Which manager will get the axe first? I say Ozzie Guillen. He's on a short leash - then again, when isn't he? - and even though he's a solid manager who gets a lot out of a so-so White Sox team, his antics wear very thin, and he'll likely get shitcanned by June if the Sox aren't contending. Also, if the Rangers aren't contending, look for Ron Washington to be fired. In the NL, Jerry Manuel will likely face the axe, assuming Mets' GM Omar Minaya doesn't get fired first.

3. Will the Cubs finally win the World Series? Are you kidding me? They may be good enough to win the rather-weak NL Central, but, no, 2010 will be 102 years and counting...

4. Which teams will surprise? There are several teams aside from the usual suspects that will very likely contend for either division titles or Wild Card berths - Marlins, Rays, Braves, White Sox, for instance - but don't be surprised to see the Reds contend this September. They've got solid hitting, some decent pitching, and if Aroldis Chapman is everything they say he is, the Reds have a legit shot at either winning the NL Central or contending for a Wild Card spot.

5. Which teams will disappoint? I don't buy that nonsense that the McCourts' messy divorce will wreck the Dodgers, but if Manny continues to be Petulant, Uninterested Manny, the Dodgers won't be much of a factor in the NL West. And don't hate me, Red Sox Nation, but I'm just not sold that adding Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre doesn't make your team better. There's a lack of firepower to balance a solid pitching rotation. They may not make the postseason.

6. Which team(s) will suck the most? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nationals win at least 75 games this season, so, no, they won't suck quite as bad as they did last season. But the Pirates will continue that pattern of non-excellence they've established since 1992, and the Indians will be truly dire this season. Expect them to mercifully put Grady Sizemore on the trading block by the All-Star break.

7. Who'll win the AL East? The Yankees, obviously. The AL East will be a three-team race between the Yanks, the Rays and the Red Sox. The Orioles are quickly and quietly building themselves a quality team that will contend in the coming seasons. The Blue Jays will simply struggle to remain respectable, but they'll be hard-pressed to win 70 games.

8. And the AL Central? The Twins. Of course, Joe Nathan's season-ending Tommy John surgery raises a HUGE question mark regarding late-inning relief, but they've got Joe Mauer and a healthy Justin Morneau. There's too much offensive talent on the Twins for them not to capture the AL Central title. The White Sox will go the way Ozzie goes, and the addition of Jake Peavy strengthens a solid pitching rotation, but, again, not much offense here. If the Tigers can psychologically recover from a late-season collapse that saw them lose a one-game playoff to the Twins, they'll contend for the title. The Royals have reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greineke and not much else, so they'll struggle just to remain interesting. As for the Indians, well, let's just say the most exciting thing to happen in Cleveland this summer will be whether or not LeBron James resigns with the Cavs.

9. The AL West? I'm picking the Rangers. They've finally got some good pitching to go along with those potent bats, and barring any impacting injuries to, say, Josh Hamilton or Ian Kinsler, they should finally reclaim the AL West title. The Mariners are a crapshoot, really; they're either modestly good or annoyingly bad. But they've improved their lineup with the addition of Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee should bolster their chances to be playing in October. Yes, the Angels are still the Angels, as long as manager Mike Scioscia is at the helm, and they're still deep, but will injuries and inconsistent play hinder their title aspirations? The A's...wait...are they still around?

10. Okay, what about the NL East? The Phillies (barf!) should easily win the division. They're simply too loaded in the pitching and offense department not to win this division with some comfort. Expect the Braves, and their stud rookie Jason Heyward, to battle mightily for the division title, as this is Bobby Cox's last season as Braves skipper. The Marlins have tantalizing young talent, and if they can bring all that talent together, they could pull off another 2003 season. The Mets will rally around a "ya gotta believe!" mentality, since no one is really picking them to contend, and you never really know with this snake-bitten team. The Nationals will surely do better than they did last season, but they're a long ways away from being remotely respectable, although the (soon-ish) arrival of Stephen Strasburg will give the Nats a ton of spotlight.

11. And what about that weak-assed NL Central? Yeah, this is a weak division, so weak that 84 wins could guarantee you the division title. I'm picking the Cardinals to win it just because they have Albert Pujols, and every other team in this division doesn't. I'd love to see the Cubs win the division crown, but they'll find a way to underachieve like they did last season. Besides, can the North Side of Chicago bear yet another miserable postseason showing? The Reds, as mentioned previously, have enough talent to make things interesting in the NL Central; don't be shocked if they're contending for the division title by season's end. I think the Brewers' chance of becoming one of the top teams in the MLB has passed them; they can rake with just about everyone, but if each game is going to be a slugfest, expect the Brew Crew to lose more than win more. The Astros will fade into obscurity by the All-Star break, and they'll seriously consider offloading Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. The Pirates...well, it'll be 19 seasons of futility and counting...

12. Finally, the NL West? Look for the Rockies to finally win their 1st division title, going along with 3 other WC births. A strong rotation, a solid lineup, and a firm belief that last season's run was just the beginning, is enough for the Rockies to win the crown. The Giants boast perhaps the best starting pitching in the NL - pound for pound, you can't find a stronger starting 4 than Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and, don't laugh, Barry Zito - but they can't hit worth a crap. You can't expect the Giants to win too many 2-1 or 1-0 games if the offense can't produce. The Dodgers may have Joe Torre and his calming presence at the helm, but other than Manny Ramirez, they possess neither an offense nor a pitching rotation that should scare other teams; they'll scrap and battle for wins, but that won't be enough. The Diamondbacks hope to see their offense, led by Tim Reynolds's 40+ dingers, carry over into this season, but other than Brandon Webb, they don't have enough pitching to carry them deep into the season. The only real point of interest for the Padres will be just how soon they'll trade 1B Adrian Gonzalez; if the Padres are well-below .500 by the All-Star break, expect the team to entertain a big bidding war for this slugger.

Predicted Finishes and Records (* = Wild Card)

AL East

1. Yankees, 96-66
2. Rays, 92-70 *
3. Red Sox, 88-74
4. Orioles, 78-84
5. Blue Jays, 66-96

AL Central

1. Twins, 91-71
2. White Sox, 85-77
3. Tigers, 82-80
4. Royals, 67-95
5. Indians, 63-99

AL West

1. Rangers, 88-74
2. Mariners, 86-76
3. Angels, 86-76
4. Athletics, 65-97

NL East

1. Phillies, 97-65
2. Braves, 91-71 *
3. Marlins, 87-75
4. Mets, 81-81
5. Nationals, 74-88

NL Central

1. Cardinals, 89-73
2. Cubs, 84-77
3. Reds, 80-82
4. Brewers, 79-82
5. Astros, 73-89
6. Pirates, 62-100

NL West

1. Rockies, 90-72
2. Giants, 88-74
3. Dodgers, 86-76
4. Diamondbacks, 74-88
5. Padres, 72-90

ALDS - Yankees over Rangers, Twins over Rays
ALCS - Yankees over Rays
NLDS - Phillies over Cardinals, Braves over Rockies
NLCS - Phillies over Braves
World Series - Yankees over Phillies

AL MVP - Evan Longoria, Rays
NL MVP - Albert Pujols, Cardinals
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez, Mariners
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay, Phillies

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Comments

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Enjoyed the post, Gus, but I think you have the Chicago teams wrong. Ozzie stepped aside quietly this Spring while the Sox fired his son, who shouldn't have been working there in the first place. He's got a good gig and he knows it. He also has a good team this year. I'll take the promise this year's younger, faster team over the certainty of watching Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye crawl into double plays.

You took the safe route with the Cubs in predicting mere mediocrity. They have the potential of being truly awful. The good news would be that the new owners have fan support when they dump their veterans before the trade deadline.
Thanks, Jimmy.

I like Ozzie a lot, but with Ozzie, you know he's a volatile chemical. Yes, he displayed professionalism by not lashing out at management for firing his son, but pretty soon, he's going to have trouble keeping his emotions in check. I don't want to see him fired, but you know he's walking a tightrope, management-wise.

I think the Cubs will be bad, if the ass-whoopin' they received yesterday is any indication. They're capable of greatness, but who the hell knows with that team anymore.