You feel shame, you know. And then you get free

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Tony Wang

Tony Wang
Location
San Diego, California, USA
Birthday
September 05
Company
www.buyandholdplus.com
Bio
Just a city boy...but definitely not born and raised in south Detroit

MY RECENT POSTS

FEBRUARY 20, 2009 11:47PM

How Bad is this Recession?

Rate: 7 Flag

It's so bad that beer sales are down.

Beer Sales Drop in Current Recession



As you can see, there has generally not been much of a relationship between alcohol purchases and changes in GDP -- the correlation is essentially zero. Nor have alcohol purchases historically been any kind of lagging or leading indicator.

But something was very, very different in the fourth quarter of 2008. Sales of alcohol for off-premises consumption were down by 9.3 percent from the previous quarter, according to the Commerce Department. This is absolutely unprecedented: the largest previous drop had been just 3.7 percent, between the third and fourth quarters of 1991.

Beer accounts for almost all of the decrease, with revenues off by almost 14 percent. Wine and spirits were much more stable, with sales volumes declining by 1.6 percent and 0.9 percent respectively.

It's a very bad recession when people even stop drinking beer.  And it's no surprise to me why beer sales are down and wine and spirits are off by a lot less.

Beer is, after all, the typical middle class drink.  Wine and spirits tend to be purchased by more affluent people.

If you're Warren Buffett, you're still drinking your single malt scotch.

If you're a UAW line worker, you're probably cutting back on the beer because you're not sure if you're going to have a job in a month.

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Comments

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Wow, this recession really is bad!
This is surprising data. I guess it blows the theory that everyone is drowning their sorrows in their beer!
I think this is instructive metaphorically, too.

I think this is a sober and sobering time in our world. We are waking up from an eight-year hangover. So even though this data must dominantly be because we don't have as much money anymore, I think it's also a smidgen because we have a new commitment-- temporary, most likely-- to face reality again.
It's about time we faced reality. Too many people were taking out the "equity" in their homes which they bought with "loans" where the principal owed went UP each month to fuel spending on crap they didn't need.

It's about time we go back to the days where people, ohmigawd, actually saved up the money they needed for things they wanted to buy.

That is much more stable than funding consumption with debt.

Investing and saving instead of pissing money away on stuff that will just gather dust? Who'd have thunk that was a good thing?
Yep. Bad. I just posted an article (Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore.") on the latest charts coming out of the Fed last Friday. The picture looks pretty grim. Our economy is setting downside records in comparison to previous recessions.

Think I will go out and have a beer and cry in it.