Randy Johnson Wins 300th Game: Will He Be the Last to Do It?

Travis D'arby

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JUNE 5, 2009 8:04AM

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San Francisco Giant lefthander Randy Johnson pitched six scoreless innings last night to become only the 24th member of Major League Baseball's exclusive 300 win club. But will he be the last as many analysts believe?

Pundits point to the five-man rotation and the reliance on bullpens to suggest the 45 year-old Johnson will be our last 300 game winner. After all, they say, a leaky bullpen blew seven potential wins for Mets ace Johan Santana last season.

Five-man rotations have been around for the last thirty years and the complete game has been on the endangered list almost as long yet that did not stop Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine from reaching the 300 win plateau.

Advances in medical care and attention to pitch counts have extended careers so that pitchers like Johnson and the Phillies 46 year-old Jamie Moyer routinely pitch into their mid-40s. The extra five to ten years at the tail end of a career more than outweigh the nine starts lost per year to the five man rotation.

Amongst active pitchers, Blue Jays 32 year-old iron man Roy Halladay has the best chance. Currently at 140 wins, he needs to average 14.1 wins for the next twelve years to reach the milestone. The Astros 31 year-old Roy Oswalt could accomplish the feat by averaging 13.1 wins over the next thirteen years.

Although it may take a while, I do believe we'll one day see another 300 game winner. Remember Roger Clemens did not win his 300th until 2003, thirteen years after the last member Nolan Ryan joined the club.

randy-johnson-keith

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For Haliday to average 14.1 wins for 12 years would be quite a feat. I'm sure it will happen again but probably only once or twice every 20 years.

Roger Fallihee

June 05, 2009 08:58 AM

I've liked Randy since his Expo days. I know he's not too popular in New York anymore. But he's a great philanthropist and really deserves this career. We can look at all the physical things, and compare the then and to the now. But character still counts for a lot in this game.

Juliet Waters

June 05, 2009 10:53 AM

Oswalt's hinted he'll retire when his contract expires in 2011, so he may not make it to 300.

Gus Sanchez

June 05, 2009 11:27 AM

The pundits were crying that Glavine would be the last. Travis, you're spot on about the medical care and extended careers. In general players are coming back from serious injuries sooner with their skills less diminished. Keep in mind that Johnson only twice won 20+ games in a season. Longevity is the key for a great pitcher.

Jamie Moyer - I remember when he came into the league. I never would've guessed that he'd still be around.

Stim

June 05, 2009 02:14 PM

I don't think we'll see another 300 game winner either under the current rules. The guys like Maddux and Clemens that got there recently did so before the last few years when several pitchers would win 20 games in a season. Now only 1 or 2 in each league seem to make it, and few seem to repeat it year after year.

I would bet that we'll have more 300 saves relief pitchers than 300 game winning starting pitchers over the next 20 years.

totalcreep

June 05, 2009 03:34 PM

My vote's for no. Fewer starts than in the past. Fewer innings in each game, which means that the chance to win passes out of your control (your point about Santana). More arm stress from throwing harder? Greater tendency to put guys on the DL, thus reducing starts further. Harder for a predominantly AL pitcher to win that many facing DH lineups, maybe? (Note from list below that most of the recent 300 game winners have mainly been NL pitchers.)

Interestingly, though, 10 of the 23 pitchers with 300 or more have done it in the 80s or later (Unit, Glavine, Seaver, Perry, Niekro, Sutton, Ryan, Maddux, Clemens, Carlton), and only Clemens has any suspicion of being juiced, so that's not a factor. Another 11 did it from the 1890s to the 1920s (ending with Alexander and Walter Johnson). It was the fifty years from 1930 to 1980 where the milestone was unusual--only Lefty Grove, Early Wynn, and Warren Spahn; and Grove and Wynn just made it.

I love Jamie Moyer, but you can't count on him for more than 10-12 now, last year notwithstanding. He'd have to go 5 more years at that rate. Even he can't hang on that long!

AtHomePilgrim

June 05, 2009 04:48 PM

I think Jake Peavy could do it. He's 28 and he will likely end the season with at least 100 wins. Say he goes until he is 40. That will mean he has to win 17 games a year, and Peavy is very capable of doing that and then some.

Tony Wang

June 05, 2009 09:01 PM

With the cited changes I'm sure this rare feat will be even rarer. But I doubt it will go extinct altogether. Hallady could get there if he'd be willing to leave the Jays for a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels or Cardinals that lends more consistent support to its starters. Mussina might have made it if he chose to stick around. Given his ability to go deep in games, to stay off the DL, and to pitch on four days rest when necessary, I wouldn't bet against C.C. Sabathia.

libertarius

June 05, 2009 09:03 PM

I still think that the greatest ever Randy Johnson moment was the All-Star game in which he faced John Kruk, sailed a 100+ mph fastball 3 feet over his head and almost literally scaraed the crap out of Kruk. Kruk then waved at 3 straight strikes like an 8 year old pee-wee, and sank to his knees doing a "salami" to Johnson. God it was funny!
Now, will he be the last? Probably not but it gets increasingly difficult with most teams now using a 5 day rest rotation. Plus, pitchers don't seem to be as durable even though Johnson has had his share of injuries and surgeries.
Tony, if Peavy is to get to 300 wins he'll have to get out of San Diego soon!
Plus, I loved Johnson's comment that it is humbling to know that even though he's now won 300 games, he's still 211 behind Cy Young! But this is an amazing milestone for this man.

Walter Blevins

June 06, 2009 01:31 PM

yeah, that Kruk moment was a classic. Basically cried Uncle from the get-go.

I don't think we'll see another, unless someone has that in mind from the start.

RJ played for the ancestor to the Nationals for, what, a couple weeks before they let him go, at the beginning of his career, so it's kind of poetic that he gets his 300th in their park.

ConnieMack

June 06, 2009 04:31 PM

Just noted: The Big Unit is the first member of the 300-win club to defeat every MLB team at least once.

ConnieMack

June 06, 2009 04:33 PM

Peavy will have to get out of San Diego soon if he wants 300 wins? Why? Need I remind you that the Padres recently won back to back division titles and went to a tiebreaking game after the season ended in a third season? Yes, they sucked last year, but that was partly because Peavy and Young were hurt.

Petco is a pitcher's ballpark, which favors someone like Peavy. He's already got an edge on most other pitchers and the ballpark makes him that much better.

Tony Wang

June 07, 2009 06:39 AM

To be honest, I never thought Johnson was going to make it to 300; he was at about 240 at age 40, and he's a power pitcher, so I figured he was done. Silly me. (I figured the same of Nolan Ryan; who knew he had more no hitters in him?)

I would say that Pedro would make it, standing at 214 wins, but he's so friggin' brittle, I don't think so.

Douglas Moran

June 07, 2009 04:10 PM

Off the top of my head I'd say Sabathia and Santana have an outside shot, but lack of run support and shaky bullpens will most likely do them in. Unless every MLB team changes its strict pitch count philosophy, many staff aces will wind up leaving games with ND's. Randy Johnson was lucky enough to come into the bigs at the tail end of an era where pitchers were allowed to go deep into games without worrying about bullpen specialists coming in to relieve them. I've always had a strong dislike for him, but he deserves a ton of credit for this incredible milestone in the age of steroids where everyone is under suspicion.