
there is a lot of breathless talk about china as a new Superpower. that does seem to be an inevitable event happening somewhere this century. however, its a multifaceted issue. its not so simple. china will indeed become even more of a superpower than it already is, but it will take a different shape than the conventional superpower.
china is part of what is sometimes called the emerging BRIC nations-- Brazil, Russia, India, China. all of which will seem to play a greater role in international power dynamics in the 21st century.
I went thru my firefox links history to find links relating to "china". heres what turned up. quite a pile.
some nice overviews in [1] and [2]. [1] describes the concept that geography plays in superpowers, and what "geography means". he says that the pacific ocean formerly a massive expanse has become the new "puddle" [mainly via cheap shipping & air freight] that means all the asian economies can hook up. which destabilizes the former center of gravity in the west.
[2] is brilliant in digging deeper below the surface, getting into the nitty-gritty man-in-the-street level and shows that the china cheerleading may in fact be a sort of scam by the typically rapacious western financial interests. it says its all a hollow illusion to some degree. he complains that there is a vast underclass. but I worry that maybe he is missing the point-- maybe that is a defining characteristic of the new emerging generation of superpowers, possibly even our own.
[2] asserts that china is sort of like the hollow USSR illusion which had a fake economy with rampant corruption and faked most of their production statistics/quotas for political manipulation/propaganda.
particularly alarming is the announcement that china is perfecting a new, sophisticated cruise missile that can take out US aircraft carriers [5-6] and military experts are saying could totally shift the balance of power in the pacific ocean away from US supremacy. see also [41], leaked news of a chinese stealth fighter jet in advanced stages of development! a stunning twist.
* * *

china's massive new supercomputing center site in Shenzhen under construction
mainly I had a bazillion relating to china's new status as the worlds fastest supercomputer in existence which really sent massive shockwaves thru the US/western media, in way like Ive never seen before [16-39].
what this means to the US is debatable. some are saying that the raw supercomputer power measurement is not significant. others eg the director of the Argonne Natl Laboratories are calling it a sputnik-like moment and urging the US govt into strong action or a virtual call-to-arms [39]. [ah well if nothing else, with the worlds largest warmachine by far, the US certainly excels at calls-to-arms.] I seriously question, does the US even have the ability, focus, drive or *awareness* to mobilize and nationally re-prioritize the way we did over sputnik?
some eg [23,40] are arguing that the metrics for supercomputers are misleading and not a full picture of capability. I would point out that the critical issue is *applications*. just because you have fast hardware does not mean you have excellent and sophisticated "apps" to run on those systems, thats quite a leap of faith. on the other hand, if you have the app, its true the fastest hardware has the greatest capability to harness its power. and also, better hardware helps develop better apps.
so far, in my opinion its not easy to prove that a very fast supercomputer or particular apps definitely give a nation particularly strategic or capitalistic advantage. many applications are for benefitting the "commons" eg improved global warming simulations etcetera. however, in the next decade, perhaps a killer "supercomputer app" may be discovered, and whoever has the best supercomputers is most likely to discover it and immediately profit from it.
but this also suggests china may do what it typically does and try to *steal* the best supercomputing apps worldwide. this may not be so serious as some of them are already open, but in other cases [eg nuclear weapon simulation] it could be an extremely serious national security issue. just a few years ago a chinese guy was implicated in spying at Los Alamos in a very big case. on the other hand if china cannot steal this app, it seems like it could be decades behind in developing one on its own.
the other major categories are wikileaks cables talking about the china government ordering the google hacks [7-9] which was widely speculated including by google but not really confirmed. this led to the semi withdrawal of google from china months ago. also in the news, an apparent hijack of dns traffic into chinese servers [11-15] which there was ongoing debate whether it was accidental.
then theres weird stories like the 9day traffic jam over 60 miles of chinese highways. wild stuff. or [4], chinese ghost cities which definitely seem to suggest a massive bubble in chinese real estate as indicated also in [2]. if there is indeed some bubble in china economic development it could have very, very serious "blowback" into the US economy. china, the US's largest creditor, is already decreasing their holdings of US treasuries. if we dont find other buyers that could lead to a spike in interest rates. in this scenario, US-china exchange rates are capable of shifting dramatically also, affecting chinese import prices into the US.
[1]
Ian Morris on Why the West Rules but China Is Next - The Daily Beast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-12-25/ian-morris-on-why-the-west-rules-but-china-is-next/?cid=topic:mainpromo3
[2]
The China Superpower Hoax | World | AlterNet
http://www.alternet.org/world/148284/the_china_superpower_hoax/
[3]
China Traffic Jam Enters 9th Day, Spans Over 60 Miles
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/23/china-traffic-jam-enters-_n_690742.html
[4]
Eerie Chinese Ghost Cities
http://www.infowars.com/eerie-chinese-ghost-cities/
[5]
China developing carrier-killer missile - The Economic Times
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/china-developing-carrier-killer-missile/articleshow/7186300.cms
[6]
Chinese missile could shift Pacific power balance - Yahoo! News
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100805/ap_on_re_as/as_china_us_carrier_killer
[7]
WikiLeaks Archive - China’s Battle With Google - NYTimes.com
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/05/world/asia/05wikileaks-china.html
[8]
WikiLeaked US cables link China to Google hack • The Register
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/11/29/wikileaks_american_diplomatic_cables_link_china_politburo_to_google_hack/
[9]
Andy Plesser: China's Politburo Ordered Hack of Google, WikiLeaks Reveals
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-plesser/chinas-politburo-ordered_b_788901.html
[10]
US: China rise a 'Sputnik moment' for clean energy - Yahoo! News
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101130/sc_afp/unclimatewarminguschina
[11]
China Internet 'hijack' hugely exaggerated, says researcher
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/112110-china-internet-hijack-hugely-exaggerated.html?hpg1=bn
[12]
Pentagon 'aware' of China Internet rerouting - Technology & science - Security - msnbc.com
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40278340/ns/technology_and_science-security/
[13]
China Internet rerouting likely accidental, says security firm - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9197419/China_Internet_rerouting_likely_accidental_says_security_firm
[14]
BBC News - US web traffic rerouted via China Telecom
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11773146
[15]
China Internet rerouting likely accidental, says security firm - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9197419/China_Internet_rerouting_likely_accidental_says_security_firm
[16]
China breaks ground on futuristic supercomputer complex - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9198479/China_breaks_ground_on_futuristic_supercomputer_complex
[17]
How China may spur U.S. supercomputing - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9196698/How_China_may_spur_U.S._supercomputing_
[18]
Is Cloud Computing a Boondoggle for China? - Technology Review
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/mimssbits/26034/?p1=A6
[19]
BBC News - China's Tianhe-1A crowned supercomputer king
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11766840
[20]
U.S. says China building 'entirely indigenous' supercomputer - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9194799/U.S._says_China_building_entirely_indigenous_supercomputer_
[21]
Top 500 supers: China rides GPUs to world domination • The Register
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/11/14/top_500_super_ranking_nov_2010/
[22]
China unseats U.S. in supercomputer ranking | Circuit Breaker - CNET News
http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20022731-260.html
[23]
Why China's New Supercomputer Is Only Technically the World's Fastest - Technology Review
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/mimssbits/25981/?p1=A5
[24]
China breaks supercomputing record -- Government Computer News
http://gcn.com/articles/2010/10/29/new-supercomputing-record-set.aspx
[25]
China's 'big hole' marks scale of supercomputing race - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9187702/China_s_big_hole_marks_scale_of_supercomputing_race
[26]
Is China a supercomputer threat? (Q&A) | Nanotech - The Circuits Blog - CNET News
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-20021122-64.html
[27]
China Claims World's Fastest Supercomputer -- InformationWeek
http://www.informationweek.com/news/infrastructure/ethernet/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=228000283
[28]
NewsFactor Network | China Claims Fastest-Ever Supercomputer, Topping U.S.
http://www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=1310049ZHM55
[29]
China boasts world's fastest supercomputer - Yahoo! News
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101028/tc_afp/chinatechnologyitworld
[30]
China Lays Claim to Fastest Supercomputer Title - CBS News
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/28/tech/main6999307.shtml
[31]
BBC News - China claims supercomputer crown
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11644252
[32]
China claims to overtake U.S. for world's fastest supercomputer -
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2010/10/china-claims-to-overtake-the-us-for-worlds-fastest-supercomputer/1
[33]
World's fastest supercomputer belongs to China - CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/innovation/10/28/china.supercomputer.mashable/index.html
[34]
China: Our supercomputer is faster than yours! - Technology & science - Tech and gadgets - msnbc.com
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39889753/ns/technology_and_science-tech_and_gadgets/
[35]
NewsFactor Network | China Claims Fastest-Ever Supercomputer, Topping U.S.
http://www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=13000DBLRL9I&full_skip=1
[36]
China's Leap in Supercomputer Rankings - BusinessWeek
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2010/tc2010104_720766.htm
[37]
China seeks to unseat the West in supercomputing - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9177573/China_seeks_to_unseat_the_West_in_supercomputing
[38]
China breaks ground on futuristic supercomputer complex - Computerworld
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9198479/China_breaks_ground_on_futuristic_supercomputer_complex
[39]
Eric D. Isaacs: Why America Must Win the Supercomputing Race
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-d-isaacs/why-america-must-win-the_b_785652.html
[40]
Smarter, Not Faster, Is the Future of Computing Research - NYTimes.com
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/21/smarter-not-faster-is-the-future-of-computing-research/?ref=technology
[41]
China stealth fighter jet: China's development of stealth fighter takes U.S. by surprise - latimes.com
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-military-20110107,0,3324067.story
[42]
Think Again: American Decline
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/think_again_american_decline
[43]
Underground world hints at China's coming crisis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8291626/Underground-world-hints-at-Chinas-coming-crisis.html
[44]
New Chinese Fighter Jet May Erase U.S. Air Invincibility - Newsweek
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/18/an-end-to-america-s-air-invincibility.html


Salon.com
Comments
Besides the obvious indicators of growing Chinese power, there are signs of Chinese instability. Pollution is a real threat, and the country appears to be depleting its water supplies. The capitalist system has created over 100,000,000 homeless people, and the corruption of party cadres, particularly at the local level has made governing the country more difficult. In fact the number of civil actions (strikes, riots, protests, etc) has been increasing steadily and by some counts is more than 14,00o per year. The Politburo is due for a major change of personnel in 2012 as roughly 2/3 of its membership will reach the mandatory age of 70, and it's hard to predict what the younger generation of party leaders will do. Also, there is a growing free speech movement, which is why the current Nobel Peace Prize winner is under house arrest. And all of this is with the backdrop of some senior party leaders calling for greater freedoms, and we are all waiting for the mega-rich to begin asserting themselves in the affairs of government the way they do in the USA. And like the United States, China is facing a disproportionate number of people over 65.
These are the downsides of China as the next big superpower. Do not automatically assume that the rise of China is inevitable. I've said for some time that China is an accident waiting to happen.