It was inevitable.  Watching it happen from the inside has been surreal.  This has affected so many people and businesses I can’t keep track of the changes and the closures. We are living through a re-boot of our entire industry. 

When American homes became piggy banks, we became a housing economy. I’m not sure exactly when this transition took place, but when it did we became too dependent on housing to fuel our economy. 

I was driving through Trenton New Jersey yesterday.  Flying by the Delaware River bridge I was struck by the nostalgia (and irony) of the old 10 foot letters on the side of the bridge that declare, “Trenton Makes The World Takes”.  I don’t think Trenton is making much for the rest of the world these days.

Housing has been driving it all. Where housing goes, so go shopping centers, professional offices, recreational facilities, home improvement, churches, restaurants……

Since housing has been nearly dormant for two years,  the domino effect on commercial construction has caught up and the pipe line has been emptied.

The commercial construction market is essentially shut down right now.  Projects for bid sell for 10% under cost. Architecture firms are dropping like flies.  Sub-contractors who have traditionally bank rolled construction projects by fronting labor and material for 60-90 days have been trapped by the vapor lock in the pipeline.  I expect many failures, some will be surprising.

In a total re-start like this, I’m rooting for the Phoenix to rise from the ashes.

With these changes, long standing relationship between builders, architects and developers will be re-cast.  New companies will be born, old companies will die.  Old paradigms that once governed the way we do business will be replaced.

I expect to see new energy invigorate an old industry.  I expect to see buildings being built through a more efficient system of delivery.  I would like to see us choose to build greener and with greater concern about building smarter.    

I’ll let you know how it turns out.