HudsonJoe's Open Salon Blog

NJ Results: DC Dems have a year to get things done

Wed, 4 Nov 2009 00:11:50 -0500

What do the results of the election in New Jersey mean for the Obama administration and Democrats in Congress?

Exit polling shows that President Obama's approval rating in NJ is still high. Corzine's loss was about a number of things: the economy, corruption fatigue, and his personal unpopularity. (In light of recent economic events, being the former head of Goldman wasn't a political asset anymore.)

I believe the resurgence of the GOP along with the ferver among the right wing (NY-23) means that Democrats in DC need to get to work. There is a window of one year to move the progressive agenda forward. President Obama needs to move the needle. After having spend the last 10 months working on bipartisanship with nothing to show for it, it is time to move on.

Close Gitmo. Repeal "Don't Ask Don't Tell". Pass the DREAM Act. Education funding. How about some more stimulus packages?

Bipartisanship in Washington is a pipe dream. A year from now, Congressional Democrats will have to answer for what does or doesn't get done. Unfortunately, some Dems elected in marginal or previously Republican ditricts, are going to lose. Make something happen before you run out of time.

It would be nice to have record of accomplishment to point to and defend.

The Bipartisan Trap

Tue, 3 Feb 2009 15:02:32 -0500

President Obama came into office having won in what is usually considered an electoral landslide. He has solid majorities in both houses of Congress and is one vote short of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. He campaigned with much rhetoric about the need for bi-partisan efforts to solve America's problems. The term 'post-partisan' has been bandied about to explain the approach the Administration wishes to take.

Bi-partisanism only works if both sides want to work together. A 'post-partisan' era can only exist if we in fact, can put our political antagonisms aside. Judging from how the last week's worth of news cycles are going for the Administration, I think we have a long way to go before we get there.

Obama's entreaties to the GOP have, to date, failed. We have Rush Limbaugh openly wishing for the President to fail. By extension, of course, he is hoping for a depression and four years of misery until Sarah Palin can swoop down from Alaska to the rescue. It never fails to amaze me how blowhards like Limbaugh suddenly lose their patriotism when the other party is in power. GOP leader John Boehner proudly lead all House Republicans in voting against the stimulus package, despite all the work Obama's team put into including enough measures in the stimulus to satisfy GOP concerns (more tax cuts, less for entitlement programs, removing money for HIV prevention).

Defeated presidential candidate Senator John McCain is firmly against the stimulus package. Senate Minority Leader McConnell is predicting the bill will not pass the Senate and wants to start from scratch. What are their ideas for solving the gravest economic crisis in America since the Depression? MORE tax cuts? More of the same destructive fiscal policies that they promulgated in the Bush years that got us in this mess in the first place?

It is time for the Obama administration to leverage the political capital it earned in the election. The American people want change. They have elected a Democratic President, a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate. How much more definitive a voice can their be for a break from the Republican policies of the last eight years? Administration officials are sacrificing important programs in the stimulus to try and attract Republican support to no apparent avail. If that is the case, then maybe they SHOULD start over, and strip out the GOP 'carrots' and put back the important progressive programs and start creating some jobs already. As Rep. Barney Frank said recently, "I never saw a tax cut fix a bridge. I never saw a tax cut give us more public transportation."

Interestingly, the bi-partisanship that Obama seeks may not come from Washington at all, but from state and local GOP officials who, faced with the realities of governing, will be looking for investments and assistance from the Feds.

Of course, we could just do it Rudy Giuliani's way. At the end of last week, Giuliani suggested we all take it easy on criticizing the big Wall Street bonuses, because those dollars get spent and boost the New York City economy. This has to be 'trickle down economics' in its most grotesque form.

The Concession Speech McCain SHOULD Give

Tue, 4 Nov 2008 17:11:00 -0500

It is a standard campaign tradition to prepare two speeches for election night, one in case of victory, one in case of defeat. There is a classic scene in The War Room where James Carville riffs on what the tone of the concession speech should be if Clinton loses the '92 election.

There is little doubt which speech McCain will give tonight. I do not know who has written the speech for him, but I offer up a few ideas:

Biltmore Resort, Arizona, 11:00pm EST-
Thank you, thank you. My friends, moments ago, I called Senator Obama and congratulated him on a hard fought victory (scattered boos from the crowd). I pledged to him my assistance as he goes on to lead the greatest country in the world, the USA. I urge all of you, my loyal supporters, to support President-elect Obama, as he is our President now. You know, Barry Goldwater once said: “It's a great country, where anybody can grow up to be president... except me.”
I want to thank my lovely wife, my family, my dear friends who supported me at great cost to their political lives, thank you Joe Liebermann. I want to thank my fellow maverick, Sarah Palin, for bringing her energy and enthusiasm to our campaign. Thank you to all who worked tirelessly for this campaign going back to those cold snowy days in New Hampshire.
Now, my friends, I want to say a few words about the tone of this campaign and what Senator Obama's victory means. This campaign was not the campaign I wanted to run, it wasn't true to who I am, John McCain, maverick war veteran and champion of 'straight talk'. This campaign was the last campaign of the George W. Bush era of the Republican Party. A party so damaged by the leadership of President Bush that we couldn't even send him out to rally the base.
Americans has resoundingly said NO to the politics and policies of the Bush-Rove Era.
My party, the GOP, is the party of Reagan, the party of fiscal restraint and conservative values. Frankly these last eight years bear little resemblance to the Republican Party of my heroes, Reagan and Goldwater, proud son of Arizona and founder of conservatism.
And so, I renew myself today, to lead my party back to the core of our beliefs and success, low taxes, encouraging small business, and fiscal conservatism with YOUR money.
I call upon our young leaders in the Republican Party to focus during these next two years, on our core beliefs and how we can best present them to the American people. Tonight, the Bush years officially come to a close. How will we define the alternative to the Obama-Pelosi-Reid politics that will now be a reality?
Ronald Reagan once said:
"Each generation goes further than the generation preceding it because it stands on the shoulders of that generation. You will have opportunities beyond anything we've ever known." I call upon that next generation. You have our opportunity now, to restore America.
God bless all of you, and God bless the United States of America.

Landslide Version

Tue, 4 Nov 2008 12:11:42 -0500

356 for Obama, 182 for McCain if it turns out to be a landslide:

Predictions

Tue, 4 Nov 2008 00:11:02 -0500

As has been my tradition going back to high school, here are my predictions for election day (made much easier thanks to the internet and interactive maps):

I really want to predict a bigger landslide, but this is a conservative estimate. It 's certainly possible Obama can win by a bigger margin. Polls seem to be tightening in recent days, and well, I've been here before and after many painful losses, I can't bring myself to predict the landslide I sometimes think is coming.

Note I have Ohio going to NcCain and Florida to Obama. This is a flip from the direction I thought those two states were going. I thought Ohio would continue to trend Democratic after electing a Democratic governor, senator, and others. But the numbers there seem to have moved in McCain's direction (I hope I'm wrong!).

Record turnout is going to help a number of downballot candidates in states like North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada, but in the end they will be red on the map. Missouri, a state that has been tempting Democrats for years, will go for McCain as well.

Here are the states that the Obama campaign is focusing on in the hours before the polls open:

Not many surprises there, but interesting to see that the campaign thinks if a real landslide is underway, Montana, with a popular Democratic governor on the ticket as well, may go blue. Certainly, hugh turnout in North Carolina and Indiana may send those states into the blue as well.

I think newscasters will be calling the race for Obama early and start to talk about mandates, the repudiation of George Bush and the GOP, and yes even a 'landslide' if the following happens:

Pennsylvania will be called for Obama fairly early in the night, as well as Virginia (where the polls close at 7pm)

North Carolina and Indiana need to be 'too close to call' well past the closing of the polls there.

On the Senate side, keep a close eye on Georgia and North Carolina. If Libby Dole loses her seat and Saxby Chambliss gets sent home, it will be a heck of a majority in the Senate for the Democrats, I predict 57 seats for Harry Reid's caucus. I really hope Al Franken pulls out a victory over Norm Coleman as well. Coleman has been holding Paul Wellstone's seat, and that's a wrong that just may get corrected.

Over at MSNBC, there is an excellent summary of races and states to watch:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27397701/